Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Josephine L K Murray; Diogo F P Marques; Ross L Cameron; Alison Potts; Jennifer Bishop; Beatrix von Wissmann; Naoma William; Arlene J Reynolds; Chris Robertson; Jim McMenamin

doi:10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Josephine L K Murray, Diogo F P Marques, Ross L Cameron, Alison Potts, Jennifer Bishop, Beatrix von Wissmann, Naoma William, Arlene J Reynolds, Chris Robertson, Jim McMenamin

Mathematics And Statistics

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Abstract

Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

Original language	English
Article number	18-00079
Pages (from-to)	1-5
Number of pages	5
Journal	Eurosurveillance
Volume	23
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079
Publication status	Published - 15 Mar 2018

Keywords

influenza
moving epidemic method
healthcare

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Murray, J. L. K., Marques, D. F. P., Cameron, R. L., Potts, A., Bishop, J., von Wissmann, B., William, N., Reynolds, A. J., Robertson, C., & McMenamin, J. (2018). Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date. Eurosurveillance, 23(11), 1-5. Article 18-00079. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

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abstract = "Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.",

keywords = "influenza, moving epidemic method, healthcare",

author = "Murray, {Josephine L K} and Marques, {Diogo F P} and Cameron, {Ross L} and Alison Potts and Jennifer Bishop and {von Wissmann}, Beatrix and Naoma William and Reynolds, {Arlene J} and Chris Robertson and Jim McMenamin",

year = "2018",

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day = "15",

doi = "10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079",

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Murray, JLK, Marques, DFP, Cameron, RL, Potts, A, Bishop, J, von Wissmann, B, William, N, Reynolds, AJ, Robertson, C & McMenamin, J 2018, 'Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date', Eurosurveillance, vol. 23, no. 11, 18-00079, pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date. / Murray, Josephine L K; Marques, Diogo F P; Cameron, Ross L et al.
In: Eurosurveillance, Vol. 23, No. 11, 18-00079, 15.03.2018, p. 1-5.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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T1 - Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

AU - Murray, Josephine L K

AU - Marques, Diogo F P

AU - Cameron, Ross L

AU - Potts, Alison

AU - Bishop, Jennifer

AU - von Wissmann, Beatrix

AU - William, Naoma

AU - Reynolds, Arlene J

AU - Robertson, Chris

AU - McMenamin, Jim

PY - 2018/3/15

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AB - Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

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KW - moving epidemic method

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Murray JLK, Marques DFP, Cameron RL, Potts A, Bishop J, von Wissmann B et al. Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date. Eurosurveillance. 2018 Mar 15;23(11):1-5. 18-00079. doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2018.23.11.18-00079

Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

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