Moving epidemic method (MEM) applied to virology data as a novel real time tool to predict peak in seasonal influenza healthcare utilisation. The Scottish experience of the 2017/18 season to date

Josephine L K Murray, Diogo F P Marques, Ross L Cameron, Alison Potts, Jennifer Bishop, Beatrix von Wissmann, Naoma William, Arlene J Reynolds, Chris Robertson, Jim McMenamin

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Scotland observed an unusual influenza A(H3N2)- dominated 2017/18 influenza season with healthcare services under significant pressure. We report the application of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to virology data as a tool to predict the influenza peak activity period and peak week of swab positivity in the current season. This novel MEM application has been successful locally and is believed to be of potential use to other countries for healthcare planning and building wider community resilience.

Original languageEnglish
Article number18-00079
Pages (from-to)1-5
Number of pages5
Issue number11
Publication statusPublished - 15 Mar 2018


  • influenza
  • moving epidemic method
  • healthcare

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