Modified analytic hierarchy process to incorporate uncertainty and managerial aspects

J. Antony, R. Banuelas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

49 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a powerful multiple-criteria decision analysis technique for dealing with complex problems. Traditional AHP forces decision-makers to converge vague judgements to single numeric preferences in order to estimate the pairwise comparisons of all pairs of objectives and decision alternatives required in the AHP. The resultant rankings of alternatives cannot be tested for statistical significance and it lacks a systematic approach that addresses managerial/soft aspects. To overcome the above limitations, the present paper presents a modified analytic hierarchy process, which incorporates probabilistic distributions to include uncertainty in the judgements. The vector of priorities is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The final rankings are analysed for rank reversal using analysis of variance, and managerial aspects (stake holder analysis, soft system methods, etc.) are introduced systematically. The focus is on the actual methodology of the modified analytic hierarchy process, which is illustrated by a brief account of a case study.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3851-3872
Number of pages21
JournalInternational Journal of Production Research
Volume42
Issue number18
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2004

Fingerprint

Analytic hierarchy process
Decision theory
Analysis of variance (ANOVA)
Uncertainty
Ranking

Keywords

  • analytic hierarchy
  • uncertainty
  • production research
  • logistics
  • manufacturing engineering
  • manufacturing industries
  • manufacturing technology
  • operations management
  • quality control management
  • production research production systems

Cite this

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title = "Modified analytic hierarchy process to incorporate uncertainty and managerial aspects",
abstract = "The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is a powerful multiple-criteria decision analysis technique for dealing with complex problems. Traditional AHP forces decision-makers to converge vague judgements to single numeric preferences in order to estimate the pairwise comparisons of all pairs of objectives and decision alternatives required in the AHP. The resultant rankings of alternatives cannot be tested for statistical significance and it lacks a systematic approach that addresses managerial/soft aspects. To overcome the above limitations, the present paper presents a modified analytic hierarchy process, which incorporates probabilistic distributions to include uncertainty in the judgements. The vector of priorities is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. The final rankings are analysed for rank reversal using analysis of variance, and managerial aspects (stake holder analysis, soft system methods, etc.) are introduced systematically. The focus is on the actual methodology of the modified analytic hierarchy process, which is illustrated by a brief account of a case study.",
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Modified analytic hierarchy process to incorporate uncertainty and managerial aspects. / Antony, J.; Banuelas, R.

In: International Journal of Production Research, Vol. 42, No. 18, 2004, p. 3851-3872.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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KW - logistics

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KW - manufacturing industries

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KW - operations management

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