Modelling the species jump: towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas

A. A. Hill, T. Drewe, R. Kosmider, S. Von Dobschuetz, O. Munoz, A. Hanna, A. Fusaro, M. De Nardi, W. Howard, K. Stevens, L. Kelly, A. Havelaar, K. Stark

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The scientific understanding of the driving factors behind zoonotic and pandemic influenzas is hampered by complex interactions between viruses, animal hosts and humans. This complexity makes identifying influenza viruses of high zoonotic or pandemic risk, before they emerge from animal populations, extremely difficult and uncertain. As a first step towards assessing zoonotic risk of Influenza, we demonstrate a risk assessment framework to assess the relative likelihood of influenza A viruses, circulating in animal populations, making the species jump into humans. The intention is that such a risk assessment framework could assist decisionmakers to compare multiple influenza viruses for zoonotic potential and hence to develop appropriate strain-specific control measures. It also provides a first step towards showing proof of principle for an eventual pandemic risk model. We show that the spatial and temporal epidemiology is as important in assessing the risk of an influenza A species jump as understanding the innate molecular capability of the virus.We also demonstrate data deficiencies that need to be addressed in order to consistently combine both epidemiological and molecular virology data into a risk assessment framework.
LanguageEnglish
Number of pages17
JournalRoyal Society Open Science
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 9 Sep 2015

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Influenza
Virus
Infection
Jump
Risk Assessment
Animals
Modeling
Epidemiology
Demonstrate
Likelihood
Human
Interaction
Framework

Keywords

  • infectious disease
  • pandemics
  • human infection
  • animal diseases

Cite this

Hill, A. A. ; Drewe, T. ; Kosmider, R. ; Von Dobschuetz, S. ; Munoz, O. ; Hanna, A. ; Fusaro, A. ; De Nardi, M. ; Howard, W. ; Stevens, K. ; Kelly, L. ; Havelaar, A. ; Stark, K. / Modelling the species jump : towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas. In: Royal Society Open Science. 2015.
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Hill, AA, Drewe, T, Kosmider, R, Von Dobschuetz, S, Munoz, O, Hanna, A, Fusaro, A, De Nardi, M, Howard, W, Stevens, K, Kelly, L, Havelaar, A & Stark, K 2015, 'Modelling the species jump: towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas' Royal Society Open Science. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.150173

Modelling the species jump : towards assessing the risk of human infection from novel avian influenzas. / Hill, A. A.; Drewe, T.; Kosmider, R.; Von Dobschuetz, S.; Munoz, O.; Hanna, A.; Fusaro, A.; De Nardi, M.; Howard, W.; Stevens, K.; Kelly, L.; Havelaar, A.; Stark, K.

In: Royal Society Open Science, 09.09.2015.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Fusaro, A.

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