Modelling the reliability of search and rescue operations with Bayesian Belief Networks

L. Norrington, J.L. Quigley, A.H. Russell, R.B. Van Der Meer

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

51 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper uses a Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) methodology to model the reliability of Search And Rescue (SAR) operations within UK Coastguard (Maritime Rescue) coordination centres. This is an extension of earlier work, which investigated the rationale of the government's decision to close a number of coordination centres. The previous study made use of secondary data sources and employed a binary logistic regression methodology to support the analysis. This study focused on the collection of primary data through a structured elicitation process, which resulted in the construction of a BBN. The main findings of the study are that statistical analysis of secondary data can be used to complement BBNs. The former provided a more objective assessment of associations between variables, but was restricted in the level of detail that could be explicitly expressed within the model due to a lack of available data. The latter method provided a much more detailed model, but the validity of the numeric assessments was more questionable. Each method can be used to inform and defend the development of the other. The paper describes in detail the elicitation process employed to construct the BBN and reflects on the potential for bias.
LanguageEnglish
Pages940-949
Number of pages10
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume93
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2008

Fingerprint

Bayesian Belief Networks
Bayesian networks
Elicitation
Modeling
Binary Regression
Methodology
Logistics
Statistical methods
Logistic Regression
Numerics
Statistical Analysis
Complement
Model

Keywords

  • Bayesian belief networks
  • statistical inference
  • elicitation
  • expert judgement
  • reliability modelling
  • risk assessment

Cite this

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Modelling the reliability of search and rescue operations with Bayesian Belief Networks. / Norrington, L.; Quigley, J.L.; Russell, A.H.; Van Der Meer, R.B.

In: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 93, No. 7, 07.2008, p. 940-949.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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