Modelling the potential impact of mask use in schools and society on COVID-19 control in the UK

J. Panovska-Griffiths; C. C. Kerr; W. Waites; R. M. Stuart; D. Mistry; D. Foster; D. J. Klein; R. M. Viner; C. Bonell

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-88075-0

Modelling the potential impact of mask use in schools and society on COVID-19 control in the UK

J. Panovska-Griffiths^*, C. C. Kerr, W. Waites, R. M. Stuart, D. Mistry, D. Foster, D. J. Klein, R. M. Viner, C. Bonell

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

As the UK reopened after the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, crucial questions emerged around the role for ongoing interventions, including test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies and mandatory masks. Here we assess the importance of masks in secondary schools by evaluating their impact over September 1–October 23, 2020. We show that, assuming TTI levels from August 2020 and no fundamental changes in the virus’s transmissibility, adoption of masks in secondary schools would have reduced the predicted size of a second wave, but preventing it would have required 68% or 46% of those with symptoms to seek testing (assuming masks’ effective coverage 15% or 30% respectively). With masks in community settings but not secondary schools, the required testing rates increase to 76% and 57%.

Original language	English
Article number	8747
Number of pages	12
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	11
Issue number	1
Early online date	22 Apr 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88075-0
Publication status	Published - Dec 2021

Funding

We would like to acknowledge Prof Graham Medley (LSHTM) and Dr Edwin van Leeuwen (Public Health England) for helpful discussions around the modelling scenarios. WW acknowledges the support of the Chief Scientist Office (COV/EDI/20/12).

Keywords

modelling
impact
mask use
schools
society
Covid-19
UK

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10.1038/s41598-021-88075-0Licence: CC BY 4.0

Panovska-Griffiths-etal-SR-2021-Modelling-the-potential-impact-of-mask-use-in-schools-and-society-on-COVID-19Final published version, 1.51 MBLicence: CC BY 4.0

Cite this

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Modelling the potential impact of mask use in schools and society on COVID-19 control in the UK

Abstract

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Keywords

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