Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs

Andrew M. Bate, Glyn Jones, Adam Kleczkowski, Alan MacLeod, Rebecca Naylor, Jon Timmis, Julia Touza, Piran C.L. White

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The ornamental plant trade has been identified as a key introduction pathway for plant pathogens. Establishing effective biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of plant pathogen outbreaks in the live plant trade is therefore important. Management of invasive pathogens has been identified as a weakest link public good, and thus is reliant on the actions of individual private agents. This paper therefore provides an analysis of the impact of the private agents' biosecurity decisions on pathogen prevention and control within the plant trade. We model the impact that an infectious disease has on a plant nursery under a constant pressure of potentially infected input plant materials, like seeds and saplings, where the spread of the disease reduces the value of mature plants. We explore six scenarios to understand the influence of three key bioeconomic parameters; the disease's basic reproductive number, the loss in value of a mature plant from acquiring an infection and the cost-effectiveness of restriction. The results characterise the disease dynamics within the nursery and explore the trade-offs and synergies between the optimal level of efforts on restriction strategies (actions to prevent buying infected inputs), and on removal of infected plants in the nursery. For diseases that can be easily controlled, restriction and removal are substitutable strategies. In contrast, for highly infectious diseases, restriction and removal are often found to be complementary, provided that restriction is cost-effective and the optimal level of removal is non-zero.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)27-43
Number of pages17
JournalEcological Modelling
Volume334
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 24 Aug 2016
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

infectious disease
modeling
pathogen
sapling
material
cost
seed
removal
plant trade

Keywords

  • bioeconomic model
  • optimal control
  • Pplant disease
  • plant nursery model

Cite this

Bate, Andrew M. ; Jones, Glyn ; Kleczkowski, Adam ; MacLeod, Alan ; Naylor, Rebecca ; Timmis, Jon ; Touza, Julia ; White, Piran C.L. / Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs. In: Ecological Modelling. 2016 ; Vol. 334. pp. 27-43.
@article{7753bf7c40d347eabe59191bbeb299a8,
title = "Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs",
abstract = "The ornamental plant trade has been identified as a key introduction pathway for plant pathogens. Establishing effective biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of plant pathogen outbreaks in the live plant trade is therefore important. Management of invasive pathogens has been identified as a weakest link public good, and thus is reliant on the actions of individual private agents. This paper therefore provides an analysis of the impact of the private agents' biosecurity decisions on pathogen prevention and control within the plant trade. We model the impact that an infectious disease has on a plant nursery under a constant pressure of potentially infected input plant materials, like seeds and saplings, where the spread of the disease reduces the value of mature plants. We explore six scenarios to understand the influence of three key bioeconomic parameters; the disease's basic reproductive number, the loss in value of a mature plant from acquiring an infection and the cost-effectiveness of restriction. The results characterise the disease dynamics within the nursery and explore the trade-offs and synergies between the optimal level of efforts on restriction strategies (actions to prevent buying infected inputs), and on removal of infected plants in the nursery. For diseases that can be easily controlled, restriction and removal are substitutable strategies. In contrast, for highly infectious diseases, restriction and removal are often found to be complementary, provided that restriction is cost-effective and the optimal level of removal is non-zero.",
keywords = "bioeconomic model, optimal control, Pplant disease, plant nursery model",
author = "Bate, {Andrew M.} and Glyn Jones and Adam Kleczkowski and Alan MacLeod and Rebecca Naylor and Jon Timmis and Julia Touza and White, {Piran C.L.}",
year = "2016",
month = "8",
day = "24",
doi = "10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.013",
language = "English",
volume = "334",
pages = "27--43",
journal = "Ecological Modelling",
issn = "0304-3800",

}

Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs. / Bate, Andrew M.; Jones, Glyn; Kleczkowski, Adam; MacLeod, Alan; Naylor, Rebecca; Timmis, Jon; Touza, Julia; White, Piran C.L.

In: Ecological Modelling, Vol. 334, 24.08.2016, p. 27-43.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling the impact and control of an infectious disease in a plant nursery with infected plant material inputs

AU - Bate, Andrew M.

AU - Jones, Glyn

AU - Kleczkowski, Adam

AU - MacLeod, Alan

AU - Naylor, Rebecca

AU - Timmis, Jon

AU - Touza, Julia

AU - White, Piran C.L.

PY - 2016/8/24

Y1 - 2016/8/24

N2 - The ornamental plant trade has been identified as a key introduction pathway for plant pathogens. Establishing effective biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of plant pathogen outbreaks in the live plant trade is therefore important. Management of invasive pathogens has been identified as a weakest link public good, and thus is reliant on the actions of individual private agents. This paper therefore provides an analysis of the impact of the private agents' biosecurity decisions on pathogen prevention and control within the plant trade. We model the impact that an infectious disease has on a plant nursery under a constant pressure of potentially infected input plant materials, like seeds and saplings, where the spread of the disease reduces the value of mature plants. We explore six scenarios to understand the influence of three key bioeconomic parameters; the disease's basic reproductive number, the loss in value of a mature plant from acquiring an infection and the cost-effectiveness of restriction. The results characterise the disease dynamics within the nursery and explore the trade-offs and synergies between the optimal level of efforts on restriction strategies (actions to prevent buying infected inputs), and on removal of infected plants in the nursery. For diseases that can be easily controlled, restriction and removal are substitutable strategies. In contrast, for highly infectious diseases, restriction and removal are often found to be complementary, provided that restriction is cost-effective and the optimal level of removal is non-zero.

AB - The ornamental plant trade has been identified as a key introduction pathway for plant pathogens. Establishing effective biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of plant pathogen outbreaks in the live plant trade is therefore important. Management of invasive pathogens has been identified as a weakest link public good, and thus is reliant on the actions of individual private agents. This paper therefore provides an analysis of the impact of the private agents' biosecurity decisions on pathogen prevention and control within the plant trade. We model the impact that an infectious disease has on a plant nursery under a constant pressure of potentially infected input plant materials, like seeds and saplings, where the spread of the disease reduces the value of mature plants. We explore six scenarios to understand the influence of three key bioeconomic parameters; the disease's basic reproductive number, the loss in value of a mature plant from acquiring an infection and the cost-effectiveness of restriction. The results characterise the disease dynamics within the nursery and explore the trade-offs and synergies between the optimal level of efforts on restriction strategies (actions to prevent buying infected inputs), and on removal of infected plants in the nursery. For diseases that can be easily controlled, restriction and removal are substitutable strategies. In contrast, for highly infectious diseases, restriction and removal are often found to be complementary, provided that restriction is cost-effective and the optimal level of removal is non-zero.

KW - bioeconomic model

KW - optimal control

KW - Pplant disease

KW - plant nursery model

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84966709501&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.013

DO - 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.04.013

M3 - Article

VL - 334

SP - 27

EP - 43

JO - Ecological Modelling

JF - Ecological Modelling

SN - 0304-3800

ER -