Modelling the effect of climate change on prevalence of malaria in western Africa

Monica C. Jackson, Laura Johansen, Cathy Furlong, Abigail Colson, Kimberly F. Sellers

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

5 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Malaria is a leading cause of infectious disease and death worldwide. As a common example of a vector-borne disease, malaria could be greatly affected by the influence of climate change. Climate impacts the transmission of malaria in several ways, affecting all stages of the disease's development. Using various weather-related factors that influence climate change, this study utilizes statistical analysis to determine the effect of climate change on reported malaria rates in an African region with endemic malaria. It examines the relationship between malaria prevalence and climate in western Africa using spatial regression modeling and tests for correlation. Our analysis suggests that minimal correlation exists between reported malaria rates and climate in western Africa. This analysis further contradicts the prevailing theory that climate and malaria prevalence are closely linked and negates the idea that climate change will increase malaria transmission in this region.
LanguageEnglish
Pages388-400
Number of pages13
JournalStatistica Neerlandica
Volume64
Issue number4
Early online date17 May 2010
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2010

Fingerprint

Malaria
Climate Change
Modeling
Climate
Africa
Climate change
Infectious Diseases
Weather
Statistical Analysis
Regression

Keywords

  • disease
  • spatial regression model
  • statistics
  • malaria
  • climate change

Cite this

Jackson, Monica C. ; Johansen, Laura ; Furlong, Cathy ; Colson, Abigail ; Sellers, Kimberly F. / Modelling the effect of climate change on prevalence of malaria in western Africa. In: Statistica Neerlandica. 2010 ; Vol. 64, No. 4. pp. 388-400.
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Modelling the effect of climate change on prevalence of malaria in western Africa. / Jackson, Monica C.; Johansen, Laura; Furlong, Cathy; Colson, Abigail; Sellers, Kimberly F.

In: Statistica Neerlandica, Vol. 64, No. 4, 01.11.2010, p. 388-400.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AB - Malaria is a leading cause of infectious disease and death worldwide. As a common example of a vector-borne disease, malaria could be greatly affected by the influence of climate change. Climate impacts the transmission of malaria in several ways, affecting all stages of the disease's development. Using various weather-related factors that influence climate change, this study utilizes statistical analysis to determine the effect of climate change on reported malaria rates in an African region with endemic malaria. It examines the relationship between malaria prevalence and climate in western Africa using spatial regression modeling and tests for correlation. Our analysis suggests that minimal correlation exists between reported malaria rates and climate in western Africa. This analysis further contradicts the prevailing theory that climate and malaria prevalence are closely linked and negates the idea that climate change will increase malaria transmission in this region.

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KW - spatial regression model

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