Modelling the effect of a novel autodissemination trap on the spread of dengue in Shah Alam and Malaysia

Y. Liang, M. N. Ahmad Mohiddin, R. Bahauddin, F. O. Hidayatul, W. A. Nazni, H. L. Lee, D. Greenhalgh

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

In this paper, we will start off by introducing the classical Ross-Macdonald model for vector-borne diseases which we use to describe the transmission of dengue between humans and Aedes mosquitoes in Shah Alam, which is a city and the state capital of Selangor, Malaysia. We will focus on analysing the effect of using the Mosquito Home System (MHS), which is an example of an autodissemination trap, in reducing the number of dengue cases by changing the Ross-Macdonald model. By using the national dengue data from Malaysia, we are able to estimate , which represents the initial growth rate of the dengue epidemic, and this allows us to estimate the number of mosquitoes in Malaysia. A mathematical expression is also constructed which allows us to estimate the potential number of breeding sites of Aedes mosquitoes. By using the data available from the MHS trial carried out in Section 15 of Shah Alam, we included the potential effect of the MHS into the dengue model and thus modelled the impact MHS has on the spread of dengue within the trial area. We then extended our results to analyse the effect of the MHSs on reducing the number of dengue cases in the whole of Malaysia. A new model was constructed with a basic reproduction number, R0,MalaMHS, which allows us to identify the required MHSs coverage needed to achieve extinction in Malaysia. Numerical simulations and tables of results were also produced to illustrate our results.

LanguageEnglish
Article number1923479
Number of pages15
JournalComputational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine
Volume2019
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Aug 2019

Fingerprint

Malaysia
Dengue
Culicidae
Trap
Modeling
Aedes
Estimate
Basic Reproduction number
Basic Reproduction Number
Model
Extinction
Disease Vectors
Tables
Coverage
Computer simulation
Breeding
Numerical Simulation
Economics
Growth

Keywords

  • Dengue
  • auto-dissemination trap
  • mosquito home system
  • ordinary differential equations
  • delayed model
  • Aedes mosquitoes
  • numerical simulations
  • Malaysia
  • Sah Alam
  • extinction
  • basic reporduction number

Cite this

Liang, Y. ; Ahmad Mohiddin, M. N. ; Bahauddin, R. ; Hidayatul, F. O. ; Nazni, W. A. ; Lee, H. L. ; Greenhalgh, D. / Modelling the effect of a novel autodissemination trap on the spread of dengue in Shah Alam and Malaysia. In: Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 2019 ; Vol. 2019.
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Modelling the effect of a novel autodissemination trap on the spread of dengue in Shah Alam and Malaysia. / Liang, Y.; Ahmad Mohiddin, M. N. ; Bahauddin, R.; Hidayatul, F. O.; Nazni, W. A.; Lee, H. L. ; Greenhalgh, D.

In: Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, Vol. 2019, 1923479, 04.08.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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AU - Liang, Y.

AU - Ahmad Mohiddin, M. N.

AU - Bahauddin, R.

AU - Hidayatul, F. O.

AU - Nazni, W. A.

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AU - Greenhalgh, D.

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KW - ordinary differential equations

KW - delayed model

KW - Aedes mosquitoes

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KW - Malaysia

KW - Sah Alam

KW - extinction

KW - basic reporduction number

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T2 - Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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SN - 1748-670X

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ER -