Modelling systemic risks to inform a repowering decision

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

This article describes a method for estimating the reliability of a system under development that is an evolution of previous designs. We present an approach to making effective use of heritage data from similar operational systems to estimate reliability of a design that is yet to realise any data. The approach also has a mechanism to adjust initial estimates in the light of sparse data that becomes available in early stages of test. While the estimation approach, known as empirical Bayes is generic, we focus on one shot devices as this was the type of system which provided the practical motivation for this work and for which we illustrate an application.
LanguageEnglish
Pages2219–2226
Number of pages8
DOIs
Publication statusUnpublished - 30 Sep 2013
EventESREL 2013 - Amsterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 30 Sep 2013 → …

Conference

ConferenceESREL 2013
CountryNetherlands
CityAmsterdam
Period30/09/13 → …

Fingerprint

Systemic risk
Modeling
Underdevelopment
Heritage
Empirical Bayes

Keywords

  • risk management
  • decision making
  • modelling risks

Cite this

Walls, Lesley ; Quigley, John ; Houghton, Tom ; Howick, Susan ; Ackermann, Fran. / Modelling systemic risks to inform a repowering decision. Paper presented at ESREL 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands.8 p.
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Walls, L, Quigley, J, Houghton, T, Howick, S & Ackermann, F 2013, 'Modelling systemic risks to inform a repowering decision' Paper presented at ESREL 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 30/09/13, pp. 2219–2226. https://doi.org/10.1201/b15938-332

Modelling systemic risks to inform a repowering decision. / Walls, Lesley; Quigley, John; Houghton, Tom; Howick, Susan; Ackermann, Fran.

2013. 2219–2226 Paper presented at ESREL 2013, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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