Modelling systemic risks to inform a repowering decision

Lesley Walls, John Quigley, Tom Houghton, Susan Howick, Fran Ackermann

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

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This article describes a method for estimating the reliability of a system under development that is an evolution of previous designs. We present an approach to making effective use of heritage data from similar operational systems to estimate reliability of a design that is yet to realise any data. The approach also has a mechanism to adjust initial estimates in the light of sparse data that becomes available in early stages of test. While the estimation approach, known as empirical Bayes is generic, we focus on one shot devices as this was the type of system which provided the practical motivation for this work and for which we illustrate an application.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages8
Publication statusUnpublished - 30 Sep 2013
EventESREL 2013 - Amsterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 30 Sep 2013 → …


ConferenceESREL 2013
Period30/09/13 → …


  • risk management
  • decision making
  • modelling risks


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