Modelling sustainability of passenger fleet transition: assessment of policy and environmental outcomes

Michael M. Aba; Vinicius Picanco Rodrigues; T.C. Wong; Ildo Luís Sauer; Paulo Gonçalves

doi:10.1016/j.trd.2025.105152

Modelling sustainability of passenger fleet transition: assessment of policy and environmental outcomes

Michael M. Aba^*
, Vinicius Picanco Rodrigues
, T.C. Wong
, Ildo Luís Sauer
, Paulo Gonçalves

^*Corresponding author for this work

Design, Manufacturing And Engineering Management

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

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Abstract

Being at the forefront of the global electric vehicle (EV) revolution with an amazing 96% of new electric car sales in 2024, it remains questionable if Norway can sustain this momentum over the long term. This study uses a system dynamics model to examine the key drivers of Norway's transition to a zero-emission fleet, focusing on consumer behaviour, policy impacts, and energy-environmental outcomes. A key innovation is the integration of Hofstede's cultural dimensions into the modeling of consumer behavior—an aspect overlooked in previous studies. Findings highlight the importance of vehicle range, affordability, and charging infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis emphasises the role of policy timing, infrastructure, and social influence in market dynamics. Scenario analysis predicts 97% EV sales by 2025 under current policies, with emissions declining by 59% by 2050. The study underscores the need for sustained incentives in the short term, infrastructure expansion, and technological innovation, offering insights for policymakers.

Original language	English
Article number	105152
Number of pages	17
Journal	Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Volume	152
Early online date	18 Dec 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2025.105152
Publication status	Published - 1 Mar 2026

Funding

The authors acknowledge the financial support from CAPES and from the Institute of Energy and Environment of University of São Paulo (IEE-USP) Center for Analysis, Planning, and Energy Resources Development (CPLEN), FUSP project number 3827 : “From organic waste to bioenergy and biofertilizers: a proposal for innovation in management, regulation and technologies and integration of industrial production chains”. The authors also thank the faculty members of the Department of Design Manufacturing and Engineering Management (DMEM), Faculty of Engineering, University of Strathclyde, for their feedback. The Fundação Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior − CAPES, [grant number: 88887.631159/2021–00 and 88881.982753/2024–01] and Petroleum Technology Development Fund – PTDF [PTDF/ED/OSS/PHD/MMA/2031/22] supported this work.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 12 Responsible Consumption and Production
SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

electric vehicles
energy transition
Norway
passenger fleet
transport

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10.1016/j.trd.2025.105152

Aba-etal-TRPD-2025-Modelling-sustainability-of-passenger-fleet-transitionAccepted author manuscript, 1.87 MBLicence: CC BY 4.0

Cite this

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title = "Modelling sustainability of passenger fleet transition: assessment of policy and environmental outcomes",

abstract = "Being at the forefront of the global electric vehicle (EV) revolution with an amazing 96\% of new electric car sales in 2024, it remains questionable if Norway can sustain this momentum over the long term. This study uses a system dynamics model to examine the key drivers of Norway's transition to a zero-emission fleet, focusing on consumer behaviour, policy impacts, and energy-environmental outcomes. A key innovation is the integration of Hofstede's cultural dimensions into the modeling of consumer behavior—an aspect overlooked in previous studies. Findings highlight the importance of vehicle range, affordability, and charging infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis emphasises the role of policy timing, infrastructure, and social influence in market dynamics. Scenario analysis predicts 97\% EV sales by 2025 under current policies, with emissions declining by 59\% by 2050. The study underscores the need for sustained incentives in the short term, infrastructure expansion, and technological innovation, offering insights for policymakers.",

keywords = "electric vehicles, energy transition, Norway, passenger fleet, transport",

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T2 - assessment of policy and environmental outcomes

AU - Aba, Michael M.

AU - Picanco Rodrigues, Vinicius

AU - Wong, T.C.

AU - Sauer, Ildo Luís

AU - Gonçalves, Paulo

PY - 2026/3/1

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N2 - Being at the forefront of the global electric vehicle (EV) revolution with an amazing 96% of new electric car sales in 2024, it remains questionable if Norway can sustain this momentum over the long term. This study uses a system dynamics model to examine the key drivers of Norway's transition to a zero-emission fleet, focusing on consumer behaviour, policy impacts, and energy-environmental outcomes. A key innovation is the integration of Hofstede's cultural dimensions into the modeling of consumer behavior—an aspect overlooked in previous studies. Findings highlight the importance of vehicle range, affordability, and charging infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis emphasises the role of policy timing, infrastructure, and social influence in market dynamics. Scenario analysis predicts 97% EV sales by 2025 under current policies, with emissions declining by 59% by 2050. The study underscores the need for sustained incentives in the short term, infrastructure expansion, and technological innovation, offering insights for policymakers.

AB - Being at the forefront of the global electric vehicle (EV) revolution with an amazing 96% of new electric car sales in 2024, it remains questionable if Norway can sustain this momentum over the long term. This study uses a system dynamics model to examine the key drivers of Norway's transition to a zero-emission fleet, focusing on consumer behaviour, policy impacts, and energy-environmental outcomes. A key innovation is the integration of Hofstede's cultural dimensions into the modeling of consumer behavior—an aspect overlooked in previous studies. Findings highlight the importance of vehicle range, affordability, and charging infrastructure. Sensitivity analysis emphasises the role of policy timing, infrastructure, and social influence in market dynamics. Scenario analysis predicts 97% EV sales by 2025 under current policies, with emissions declining by 59% by 2050. The study underscores the need for sustained incentives in the short term, infrastructure expansion, and technological innovation, offering insights for policymakers.

KW - electric vehicles

KW - energy transition

KW - Norway

KW - passenger fleet

KW - transport

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DO - 10.1016/j.trd.2025.105152

M3 - Article

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ER -

Modelling sustainability of passenger fleet transition: assessment of policy and environmental outcomes

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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