Modelling generation and infrastructure requirements for transition pathways

Malcolm Barnacle, Elizabeth Margaret Robertson, Stuart Galloway, John Barton, Graham Ault

Research output: Contribution to journalSpecial issue

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

With national targets to reduce carbon emissions enforced by international accords, the UK's energy sector will move towards its low carbon future through political, societal and technological drivers. Three Transition Pathway narratives have been developed to describe three different evolutions of the UK energy sector out to 2050. This paper details two tools that have been combined to assess the robustness and rationale of these three energy futures. The future energy scenario assessment (FESA) tool is used to develop pathway specific large-scale generation mixes that meet expected demands on both a yearly and hourly time step basis. The multi-objective transmission reinforcement planning (MOTRiP) tool is used to generate a set of electrical network plans for the assessment of expected electrical infrastructure requirements, following the application of the future generation mixes to the current GB electrical transmission network. The results, detailed throughout this paper, demonstrate that the combination of FESA's detailed temporal analysis and MOTRiP's comprehensive geographical analysis provides a high-quality holistic examination of the Transition Pathways scenarios, assessing the need for national infrastructure reinforcements with the changing demand and generation patterns.
LanguageEnglish
Pages60-75
Number of pages16
JournalEnergy Policy
Volume52
Early online date9 May 2012
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 9 May 2012

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infrastructure
Reinforcement
reinforcement
modeling
energy
Carbon
Electric power transmission networks
temporal analysis
carbon emission
Planning
carbon
demand

Keywords

  • carbon emissions
  • transition pathways
  • transmission reinforcement planning
  • supply–demand grid balancing

Cite this

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Modelling generation and infrastructure requirements for transition pathways. / Barnacle, Malcolm; Robertson, Elizabeth Margaret; Galloway, Stuart; Barton, John; Ault, Graham.

In: Energy Policy, Vol. 52, 09.05.2012, p. 60-75.

Research output: Contribution to journalSpecial issue

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AU - Robertson, Elizabeth Margaret

AU - Galloway, Stuart

AU - Barton, John

AU - Ault, Graham

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AB - With national targets to reduce carbon emissions enforced by international accords, the UK's energy sector will move towards its low carbon future through political, societal and technological drivers. Three Transition Pathway narratives have been developed to describe three different evolutions of the UK energy sector out to 2050. This paper details two tools that have been combined to assess the robustness and rationale of these three energy futures. The future energy scenario assessment (FESA) tool is used to develop pathway specific large-scale generation mixes that meet expected demands on both a yearly and hourly time step basis. The multi-objective transmission reinforcement planning (MOTRiP) tool is used to generate a set of electrical network plans for the assessment of expected electrical infrastructure requirements, following the application of the future generation mixes to the current GB electrical transmission network. The results, detailed throughout this paper, demonstrate that the combination of FESA's detailed temporal analysis and MOTRiP's comprehensive geographical analysis provides a high-quality holistic examination of the Transition Pathways scenarios, assessing the need for national infrastructure reinforcements with the changing demand and generation patterns.

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