Modelling burglary in Chicago using a self-exciting point process with isotropic triggering

Craig Gilmour, Desmond J. Higham

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Self-exciting point processes have been proposed as models for the location of criminal events in space and time. Here we consider the case where the triggering function is isotropic and takes a non-parametric form that is determined from data. We pay special attention to normalisation issues and to the choice of spatial distance measure, thereby extending the current methodology. After validating these ideas on synthetic data, we perform inference and prediction tests on public domain burglary data from Chicago. We show that the algorithmic advances that we propose lead to improved predictive accuracy.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages23
JournalEuropean Journal of Applied Mathematics
Early online date8 Apr 2021
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 8 Apr 2021

Keywords

  • Hawkes process
  • criminology
  • non-parametric
  • hotspots

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