Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola: an ensemble approach

Samson Leta, Eyerusalem Fetene, Tesfaye Mulatu, Kebede Amenu, Megarsa Bedasa Jaleta, Tariku Jibat Beyene, Haileleul Negussie, Crawford W. Revie

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Culicoides imicola is a midge species serving as vector for a number of viral diseases of livestock, including Bluetongue, and African Horse Sickness. C. imicola is also known to transmit Schmallenberg virus experimentally. Environmental and demographic factors may impose rapid changes on the global distribution of C. imicola and aid introduction into new areas. The aim of this study is to predict the global distribution of C. imicola using an ensemble modeling approach by combining climatic, livestock distribution and land cover covariates, together with a comprehensive global dataset of geo-positioned occurrence points for C. imicola. Thirty individual models were generated by 'biomod2', with 21 models scoring a true skill statistic (TSS) >0.8. These 21 models incorporated weighted runs from eight of ten algorithms and were used to create a final ensemble model. The ensemble model performed very well (TSS = 0.898 and ROC = 0.991) and indicated high environmental suitability for C. imicola in the tropics and subtropics. The habitat suitability for C. imicola spans from South Africa to southern Europe and from southern USA to southern China. The distribution of C. imicola is mainly constrained by climatic factors. In the ensemble model, mean annual minimum temperature had the highest overall contribution (42.9%), followed by mean annual maximum temperature (21.1%), solar radiation (13.6%), annual precipitation (11%), livestock distribution (6.2%), vapor pressure (3.4%), wind speed (0.8%), and land cover (0.1%). The present study provides the most up-to-date predictive maps of the potential distributions of C. imicola and should be of great value for decision making at global and regional scales.
LanguageEnglish
Article number14187
Number of pages9
JournalScientific Reports
Volume9
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2 Oct 2019

Fingerprint

Culicoides imicola
land cover
statistics
livestock
African horse sickness
livestock diseases
bluetongue
midges
Southern European region
climatic factors
vapor pressure
subtropics
wind speed
decision making
tropics
temperature
solar radiation
demographic statistics
South Africa

Keywords

  • Culicoides imicola
  • midges
  • viral disease distribution

Cite this

Leta, Samson ; Fetene, Eyerusalem ; Mulatu, Tesfaye ; Amenu, Kebede ; Jaleta, Megarsa Bedasa ; Beyene, Tariku Jibat ; Negussie, Haileleul ; Revie, Crawford W. / Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola : an ensemble approach. In: Scientific Reports. 2019 ; Vol. 9.
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abstract = "Culicoides imicola is a midge species serving as vector for a number of viral diseases of livestock, including Bluetongue, and African Horse Sickness. C. imicola is also known to transmit Schmallenberg virus experimentally. Environmental and demographic factors may impose rapid changes on the global distribution of C. imicola and aid introduction into new areas. The aim of this study is to predict the global distribution of C. imicola using an ensemble modeling approach by combining climatic, livestock distribution and land cover covariates, together with a comprehensive global dataset of geo-positioned occurrence points for C. imicola. Thirty individual models were generated by 'biomod2', with 21 models scoring a true skill statistic (TSS) >0.8. These 21 models incorporated weighted runs from eight of ten algorithms and were used to create a final ensemble model. The ensemble model performed very well (TSS = 0.898 and ROC = 0.991) and indicated high environmental suitability for C. imicola in the tropics and subtropics. The habitat suitability for C. imicola spans from South Africa to southern Europe and from southern USA to southern China. The distribution of C. imicola is mainly constrained by climatic factors. In the ensemble model, mean annual minimum temperature had the highest overall contribution (42.9{\%}), followed by mean annual maximum temperature (21.1{\%}), solar radiation (13.6{\%}), annual precipitation (11{\%}), livestock distribution (6.2{\%}), vapor pressure (3.4{\%}), wind speed (0.8{\%}), and land cover (0.1{\%}). The present study provides the most up-to-date predictive maps of the potential distributions of C. imicola and should be of great value for decision making at global and regional scales.",
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Leta, S, Fetene, E, Mulatu, T, Amenu, K, Jaleta, MB, Beyene, TJ, Negussie, H & Revie, CW 2019, 'Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola: an ensemble approach' Scientific Reports, vol. 9, 14187. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50765-1

Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola : an ensemble approach. / Leta, Samson; Fetene, Eyerusalem; Mulatu, Tesfaye; Amenu, Kebede; Jaleta, Megarsa Bedasa; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; Negussie, Haileleul; Revie, Crawford W.

In: Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, 14187, 02.10.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola

T2 - Scientific Reports

AU - Leta, Samson

AU - Fetene, Eyerusalem

AU - Mulatu, Tesfaye

AU - Amenu, Kebede

AU - Jaleta, Megarsa Bedasa

AU - Beyene, Tariku Jibat

AU - Negussie, Haileleul

AU - Revie, Crawford W.

PY - 2019/10/2

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AB - Culicoides imicola is a midge species serving as vector for a number of viral diseases of livestock, including Bluetongue, and African Horse Sickness. C. imicola is also known to transmit Schmallenberg virus experimentally. Environmental and demographic factors may impose rapid changes on the global distribution of C. imicola and aid introduction into new areas. The aim of this study is to predict the global distribution of C. imicola using an ensemble modeling approach by combining climatic, livestock distribution and land cover covariates, together with a comprehensive global dataset of geo-positioned occurrence points for C. imicola. Thirty individual models were generated by 'biomod2', with 21 models scoring a true skill statistic (TSS) >0.8. These 21 models incorporated weighted runs from eight of ten algorithms and were used to create a final ensemble model. The ensemble model performed very well (TSS = 0.898 and ROC = 0.991) and indicated high environmental suitability for C. imicola in the tropics and subtropics. The habitat suitability for C. imicola spans from South Africa to southern Europe and from southern USA to southern China. The distribution of C. imicola is mainly constrained by climatic factors. In the ensemble model, mean annual minimum temperature had the highest overall contribution (42.9%), followed by mean annual maximum temperature (21.1%), solar radiation (13.6%), annual precipitation (11%), livestock distribution (6.2%), vapor pressure (3.4%), wind speed (0.8%), and land cover (0.1%). The present study provides the most up-to-date predictive maps of the potential distributions of C. imicola and should be of great value for decision making at global and regional scales.

KW - Culicoides imicola

KW - midges

KW - viral disease distribution

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