Modeling supply risk using belief networks: a process with application to the distribution of medicine

K. Leerojanaprapa, R. van der Meer, L. Walls

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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Abstract

We propose a modeling approach based on belief networks to capture and understand the systemic nature of risks affecting supply networks. By aligning the purpose of a model with the nature of supply management decisions, we provide a mechanism for identifying relevant supply risks so that we can visualize interdependencies between risks and predict their effects on supply performance. By using a belief network modeling formalism we can use diagnostics to understand the key drivers of unwanted risk scenarios and to explore the efficacy of possible risk mitigating actions. We illustrate how belief network modeling can be used to manage the risk/reward position and provide new insights into supply risks through an example for the medicine supply chain of a regional health service provider.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2013 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
Place of PublicationPiscataway, N.J.
PublisherIEEE
Number of pages5
ISBN (Print)978-1-4799-0986-5
Publication statusPublished - 11 Dec 2013
EventInternational Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management - Bangkok, Thailand
Duration: 10 Dec 201313 Dec 2013

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management
Country/TerritoryThailand
CityBangkok
Period10/12/1313/12/13

Keywords

  • supply risk
  • belief networks
  • medicine distribution

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