TY - JOUR
T1 - Modeling malaria infection and immunity against variant surface antigens in Príncipe Island, West Africa
AU - Bandeiras, Cátia
AU - Trovoada, Maria Jesus
AU - Gonçalves, Lígia A.
AU - Marinho, Cláudio R.F.
AU - Turner, Louise
AU - Hviid, Lars
AU - Penha-Gonçalves, Carlos
AU - Gomes, M. Gabriela M.
N1 - Bandeiras C, Trovoada MJ, Gonçalves LA, Marinho CRF, Turner L, Hviid L, et al. (2014) Modeling Malaria Infection and Immunity against Variant Surface Antigens in Príncipe Island, West Africa. PLoS ONE 9(2): e88110. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088110
PY - 2014/2/10
Y1 - 2014/2/10
N2 - After remarkable success of vector control campaigns worldwide, concerns about loss of immunity against Plasmodium falciparum due to lack of exposure to the parasite are relevant since an increase of severe cases in less immune individuals is expected. We present a mathematical model to investigate the impact of reducing exposure to the parasite on the immune repertoire against P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) variants. The model was parameterized with data from Príncipe Island, West Africa, and applied to simulate two alternative transmission scenarios: one where control measures are continued to eventually drive the system to elimination; and another where the effort is interrupted after 6 years of its initiation and the system returns to the initial transmission potential. Population dynamics of parasite prevalence predict that in a few years infection levels return to the pre-control values, while the re-acquisition of the immune repertoire against PfEMP1 is slower, creating a window for increased severity. The model illustrates the consequences of loss of immune repertoire against PfEMP1 in a given setting and can be applied to other regions where similar data may be available.
AB - After remarkable success of vector control campaigns worldwide, concerns about loss of immunity against Plasmodium falciparum due to lack of exposure to the parasite are relevant since an increase of severe cases in less immune individuals is expected. We present a mathematical model to investigate the impact of reducing exposure to the parasite on the immune repertoire against P. falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) variants. The model was parameterized with data from Príncipe Island, West Africa, and applied to simulate two alternative transmission scenarios: one where control measures are continued to eventually drive the system to elimination; and another where the effort is interrupted after 6 years of its initiation and the system returns to the initial transmission potential. Population dynamics of parasite prevalence predict that in a few years infection levels return to the pre-control values, while the re-acquisition of the immune repertoire against PfEMP1 is slower, creating a window for increased severity. The model illustrates the consequences of loss of immune repertoire against PfEMP1 in a given setting and can be applied to other regions where similar data may be available.
KW - malaria
KW - falciparum erythrocyte
KW - plasmodium falciparum
KW - erythrocyte membrane protein 1
KW - adaptive immunity
KW - antibody detection
KW - disease carrier
KW - disease duration
KW - disease transmission
KW - mathematical model
KW - microbial population dynamics
KW - parasite prevalence
KW - parasite transmission
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84895735535&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0088110
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0088110
M3 - Article
C2 - 24520349
AN - SCOPUS:84895735535
VL - 9
SP - 1
EP - 10
JO - PLOS One
JF - PLOS One
SN - 1932-6203
IS - 2
M1 - e88110
ER -