Mixing Bayes and empirical Bayes inference to anticipate the realization of engineering concerns about variant system designs

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

7 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Mixing Bayes and Empirical Bayes inference provides reliability estimates for variant system designs by using relevant failure data – observed and anticipated – about engineering changes arising due to modification and innovation. A coherent inference framework is proposed to predict the realization of engineering concerns during product development so that informed decisions can be made about the system design and the analysis conducted to prove reliability. The proposed method involves combining subjective prior distributions for the number of engineering concerns with empirical priors for the non-parametric distribution of time to realize these concerns in such a way that we can cross-tabulate classes of concerns to failure events within time partitions at an appropriate level of granularity. To support efficient implementation, a computationally convenient hypergeometric approximation is developed for the counting distributions appropriate to our underlying stochastic model. The accuracy of our approximation over first-order alternatives is examined, and demonstrated, through an evaluation experiment. An industrial application illustrates model implementation and shows how estimates can be updated using information arising during development test and analysis.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)933-941
Number of pages9
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume96
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Aug 2011

Keywords

  • empirical bayes inference
  • reliability engineering
  • variant system designs

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Mixing Bayes and empirical Bayes inference to anticipate the realization of engineering concerns about variant system designs'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Impacts

    International standards and working practices of UK Aerospace & Defence industry changed by reliability growth modelling

    Lesley Walls (Participant) & John Quigley (Participant)

    Impact: Impact - for External PortalEconomic and commerce, Professional practice, training and standards

    File

    Cite this