Mise en Oeuvre des Modeles Probabilistes d'Aleas Sismiques

Seismic Hazard assessment is a key component in seismic risks prevention due to earthquake events. Here, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is applied to nuclear power plants protection against earthquakes that could lead to human or property damages. This report presents the implementation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard models using the probabilistic software 𝐶𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑖𝑠2015. Firstly, we study the fundamental basis of the PSHA and the parameter that account in the seismic hazard evaluation. Secondly, a PSHA is carried for two EDF power plant sites on the French territory, in a first place in means value parameters, then with uncertainties propagation. Through a comparative analysis with post-processing computations, we demonstrate that CRISIS reduces effectively the computational time.
Sensibility studies was also carried out to quantify the impact of input parameters on the probabilistic hazard estimation showing that the impact is dependent on the seismicity of the studied zone.
The last part of this report concerns the implementation of the model used to compute the national PSHA for the French territory using CRISIS. Finally, we establish Seismic Hazard maps of the French territory in order to determine the ground accelerations for different return periods and spectral frequencies.