# Mathematical modelling the spread of Zika and Microcephaly in Brazil

Yanfeng Liang, David Greenhalgh

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

### Abstract

In this paper we look at a non-age-structured model for the spread of the Zika Virus and Microcephaly in Brazil. We first outline the non-seasonal differential equation model, and discuss parameter values and their estimation. Then we talk about the basic reproduction number and details of the calculation of the number of Microcephaly cases. Next we estimate how the model can be made more realistic by introducing seasonality into the mosquito population. Finally we consider sensitivity of the results to the mosquito biting rate.
Original language English Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering CMMSE 2017 [S.I.] 1264-1268 5 4 Published - 4 Jul 2017

### Fingerprint

Mathematical Modeling
Seasonality
Basic Reproduction number
Virus
Model
Differential equation
Estimate

### Keywords

• zika
• Brazil
• microcephaly
• aedes aegypti mosquito
• basic reproduction number
• differential equation model
• seasonailty

### Cite this

Liang, Y., & Greenhalgh, D. (2017). Mathematical modelling the spread of Zika and Microcephaly in Brazil. In Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering: CMMSE 2017 (Vol. 4, pp. 1264-1268). [S.I.].
Liang, Yanfeng ; Greenhalgh, David. / Mathematical modelling the spread of Zika and Microcephaly in Brazil. Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering: CMMSE 2017. Vol. 4 [S.I.], 2017. pp. 1264-1268
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title = "Mathematical modelling the spread of Zika and Microcephaly in Brazil",
abstract = "In this paper we look at a non-age-structured model for the spread of the Zika Virus and Microcephaly in Brazil. We first outline the non-seasonal differential equation model, and discuss parameter values and their estimation. Then we talk about the basic reproduction number and details of the calculation of the number of Microcephaly cases. Next we estimate how the model can be made more realistic by introducing seasonality into the mosquito population. Finally we consider sensitivity of the results to the mosquito biting rate.",
keywords = "zika, Brazil, microcephaly, aedes aegypti mosquito, basic reproduction number, differential equation model, seasonailty",
author = "Yanfeng Liang and David Greenhalgh",
year = "2017",
month = "7",
day = "4",
language = "English",
isbn = "978-84-617-8694-7",
volume = "4",
pages = "1264--1268",
booktitle = "Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering",

}

Liang, Y & Greenhalgh, D 2017, Mathematical modelling the spread of Zika and Microcephaly in Brazil. in Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering: CMMSE 2017. vol. 4, [S.I.], pp. 1264-1268.
Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering: CMMSE 2017. Vol. 4 [S.I.], 2017. p. 1264-1268.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

TY - GEN

T1 - Mathematical modelling the spread of Zika and Microcephaly in Brazil

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AU - Greenhalgh, David

PY - 2017/7/4

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N2 - In this paper we look at a non-age-structured model for the spread of the Zika Virus and Microcephaly in Brazil. We first outline the non-seasonal differential equation model, and discuss parameter values and their estimation. Then we talk about the basic reproduction number and details of the calculation of the number of Microcephaly cases. Next we estimate how the model can be made more realistic by introducing seasonality into the mosquito population. Finally we consider sensitivity of the results to the mosquito biting rate.

AB - In this paper we look at a non-age-structured model for the spread of the Zika Virus and Microcephaly in Brazil. We first outline the non-seasonal differential equation model, and discuss parameter values and their estimation. Then we talk about the basic reproduction number and details of the calculation of the number of Microcephaly cases. Next we estimate how the model can be made more realistic by introducing seasonality into the mosquito population. Finally we consider sensitivity of the results to the mosquito biting rate.

KW - zika

KW - Brazil

KW - microcephaly

KW - aedes aegypti mosquito

KW - basic reproduction number

KW - differential equation model

KW - seasonailty

UR - http://cmmse.usal.es/cmmse2017/proceedings-and-instructions-for-authors

M3 - Conference contribution book

SN - 978-84-617-8694-7

VL - 4

SP - 1264

EP - 1268

BT - Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering

CY - [S.I.]

ER -

Liang Y, Greenhalgh D. Mathematical modelling the spread of Zika and Microcephaly in Brazil. In Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering: CMMSE 2017. Vol. 4. [S.I.]. 2017. p. 1264-1268