Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users

Stephen Corson, David Greenhalgh, Sharon Hutchinson

Research output: Contribution to conferencePoster

Abstract

The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global health problem. Since
its discovery in 1989 it is estimated that 3% of the global population are
infected (approximately 180 million people), with approximately 3-4 million
new infections each year. HCV is transmitted by means of blood-blood
contact. The introduction of screening blood products in developed countries,
however, means that the injecting drug user (IDU) community is now at the
greatest risk of contracting the disease through the sharing of unsterilised
injecting equipment. With approximately 75% of those contracting the
disease progressing to chronic infection and death, the disease is a substantial
cause of morbidity and mortality. With no vaccination available, the future
economic burden is likely to be substantial. It is for this reason that the
greatest impact on the spread of Hepatitis C will come from the intervention
measures employed by health organisations worldwide.
Unfortunately, the epidemiology of the disease and the interactions in
the IDU population is difficult to study and understand. Using mathematical
modelling techniques it is possible to better understand the intricate relationship
between the risk behaviour of the IDU population and the biological properties
of the disease at its various stages. Furthermore, the likely impact of the
intervention strategies, treatment options, and diagnostic tools on the prevalence
of the disease in the IDU population can also be modelled. Using these
techniques it has been possible to construct a simple mathematical model
to describe the spread of HCV. An expression of the basic reproductive
number, R0 , has been found and the stability of equilibrium solutions has
been investigated.

Conference

Conference35'th Young Statisticians Meeting
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityGlasgow
Period7/04/098/04/09

Fingerprint

Hepatitis C
Drug Users
Hepacivirus
Population
Virus Diseases
Risk-Taking
Infection
Developed Countries
Vaccination
Epidemiology
Organizations
Morbidity
Equipment and Supplies
Mortality
Global Health
Therapeutics

Keywords

  • hepatitis C
  • mathematical modelling
  • injecting
  • drug users

Cite this

Corson, S., Greenhalgh, D., & Hutchinson, S. (2009). Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users. Poster session presented at 35'th Young Statisticians Meeting, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Corson, Stephen ; Greenhalgh, David ; Hutchinson, Sharon. / Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users. Poster session presented at 35'th Young Statisticians Meeting, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
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abstract = "The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global health problem. Sinceits discovery in 1989 it is estimated that 3{\%} of the global population areinfected (approximately 180 million people), with approximately 3-4 millionnew infections each year. HCV is transmitted by means of blood-bloodcontact. The introduction of screening blood products in developed countries,however, means that the injecting drug user (IDU) community is now at thegreatest risk of contracting the disease through the sharing of unsterilisedinjecting equipment. With approximately 75{\%} of those contracting thedisease progressing to chronic infection and death, the disease is a substantialcause of morbidity and mortality. With no vaccination available, the futureeconomic burden is likely to be substantial. It is for this reason that thegreatest impact on the spread of Hepatitis C will come from the interventionmeasures employed by health organisations worldwide.Unfortunately, the epidemiology of the disease and the interactions inthe IDU population is difficult to study and understand. Using mathematicalmodelling techniques it is possible to better understand the intricate relationshipbetween the risk behaviour of the IDU population and the biological propertiesof the disease at its various stages. Furthermore, the likely impact of theintervention strategies, treatment options, and diagnostic tools on the prevalenceof the disease in the IDU population can also be modelled. Using thesetechniques it has been possible to construct a simple mathematical modelto describe the spread of HCV. An expression of the basic reproductivenumber, R0 , has been found and the stability of equilibrium solutions hasbeen investigated.",
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Corson, S, Greenhalgh, D & Hutchinson, S 2009, 'Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users' 35'th Young Statisticians Meeting, Glasgow, United Kingdom, 7/04/09 - 8/04/09, .

Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users. / Corson, Stephen; Greenhalgh, David; Hutchinson, Sharon.

2009. Poster session presented at 35'th Young Statisticians Meeting, Glasgow, United Kingdom.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePoster

TY - CONF

T1 - Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users

AU - Corson, Stephen

AU - Greenhalgh, David

AU - Hutchinson, Sharon

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global health problem. Sinceits discovery in 1989 it is estimated that 3% of the global population areinfected (approximately 180 million people), with approximately 3-4 millionnew infections each year. HCV is transmitted by means of blood-bloodcontact. The introduction of screening blood products in developed countries,however, means that the injecting drug user (IDU) community is now at thegreatest risk of contracting the disease through the sharing of unsterilisedinjecting equipment. With approximately 75% of those contracting thedisease progressing to chronic infection and death, the disease is a substantialcause of morbidity and mortality. With no vaccination available, the futureeconomic burden is likely to be substantial. It is for this reason that thegreatest impact on the spread of Hepatitis C will come from the interventionmeasures employed by health organisations worldwide.Unfortunately, the epidemiology of the disease and the interactions inthe IDU population is difficult to study and understand. Using mathematicalmodelling techniques it is possible to better understand the intricate relationshipbetween the risk behaviour of the IDU population and the biological propertiesof the disease at its various stages. Furthermore, the likely impact of theintervention strategies, treatment options, and diagnostic tools on the prevalenceof the disease in the IDU population can also be modelled. Using thesetechniques it has been possible to construct a simple mathematical modelto describe the spread of HCV. An expression of the basic reproductivenumber, R0 , has been found and the stability of equilibrium solutions hasbeen investigated.

AB - The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global health problem. Sinceits discovery in 1989 it is estimated that 3% of the global population areinfected (approximately 180 million people), with approximately 3-4 millionnew infections each year. HCV is transmitted by means of blood-bloodcontact. The introduction of screening blood products in developed countries,however, means that the injecting drug user (IDU) community is now at thegreatest risk of contracting the disease through the sharing of unsterilisedinjecting equipment. With approximately 75% of those contracting thedisease progressing to chronic infection and death, the disease is a substantialcause of morbidity and mortality. With no vaccination available, the futureeconomic burden is likely to be substantial. It is for this reason that thegreatest impact on the spread of Hepatitis C will come from the interventionmeasures employed by health organisations worldwide.Unfortunately, the epidemiology of the disease and the interactions inthe IDU population is difficult to study and understand. Using mathematicalmodelling techniques it is possible to better understand the intricate relationshipbetween the risk behaviour of the IDU population and the biological propertiesof the disease at its various stages. Furthermore, the likely impact of theintervention strategies, treatment options, and diagnostic tools on the prevalenceof the disease in the IDU population can also be modelled. Using thesetechniques it has been possible to construct a simple mathematical modelto describe the spread of HCV. An expression of the basic reproductivenumber, R0 , has been found and the stability of equilibrium solutions hasbeen investigated.

KW - hepatitis C

KW - mathematical modelling

KW - injecting

KW - drug users

M3 - Poster

ER -

Corson S, Greenhalgh D, Hutchinson S. Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users. 2009. Poster session presented at 35'th Young Statisticians Meeting, Glasgow, United Kingdom.