### Abstract

its discovery in 1989 it is estimated that 3% of the global population are

infected (approximately 180 million people), with approximately 3-4 million

new infections each year. HCV is transmitted by means of blood-blood

contact. The introduction of screening blood products in developed countries,

however, means that the injecting drug user (IDU) community is now at the

greatest risk of contracting the disease through the sharing of unsterilised

injecting equipment. With approximately 75% of those contracting the

disease progressing to chronic infection and death, the disease is a substantial

cause of morbidity and mortality. With no vaccination available, the future

economic burden is likely to be substantial. It is for this reason that the

greatest impact on the spread of Hepatitis C will come from the intervention

measures employed by health organisations worldwide.

Unfortunately, the epidemiology of the disease and the interactions in

the IDU population is difficult to study and understand. Using mathematical

modelling techniques it is possible to better understand the intricate relationship

between the risk behaviour of the IDU population and the biological properties

of the disease at its various stages. Furthermore, the likely impact of the

intervention strategies, treatment options, and diagnostic tools on the prevalence

of the disease in the IDU population can also be modelled. Using these

techniques it has been possible to construct a simple mathematical model

to describe the spread of HCV. An expression of the basic reproductive

number, R0 , has been found and the stability of equilibrium solutions has

been investigated.

Language | English |
---|---|

Publication status | Published - 2009 |

Event | 35'th Young Statisticians Meeting - Glasgow, United Kingdom Duration: 7 Apr 2009 → 8 Apr 2009 |

### Conference

Conference | 35'th Young Statisticians Meeting |
---|---|

Country | United Kingdom |

City | Glasgow |

Period | 7/04/09 → 8/04/09 |

### Fingerprint

### Keywords

- hepatitis C
- mathematical modelling
- injecting
- drug users

### Cite this

*Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users*. Poster session presented at 35'th Young Statisticians Meeting, Glasgow, United Kingdom.

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**Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users.** / Corson, Stephen; Greenhalgh, David; Hutchinson, Sharon.

Research output: Contribution to conference › Poster

TY - CONF

T1 - Mathematical modelling of the spread of hepatitis C in injecting drug users

AU - Corson, Stephen

AU - Greenhalgh, David

AU - Hutchinson, Sharon

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global health problem. Sinceits discovery in 1989 it is estimated that 3% of the global population areinfected (approximately 180 million people), with approximately 3-4 millionnew infections each year. HCV is transmitted by means of blood-bloodcontact. The introduction of screening blood products in developed countries,however, means that the injecting drug user (IDU) community is now at thegreatest risk of contracting the disease through the sharing of unsterilisedinjecting equipment. With approximately 75% of those contracting thedisease progressing to chronic infection and death, the disease is a substantialcause of morbidity and mortality. With no vaccination available, the futureeconomic burden is likely to be substantial. It is for this reason that thegreatest impact on the spread of Hepatitis C will come from the interventionmeasures employed by health organisations worldwide.Unfortunately, the epidemiology of the disease and the interactions inthe IDU population is difficult to study and understand. Using mathematicalmodelling techniques it is possible to better understand the intricate relationshipbetween the risk behaviour of the IDU population and the biological propertiesof the disease at its various stages. Furthermore, the likely impact of theintervention strategies, treatment options, and diagnostic tools on the prevalenceof the disease in the IDU population can also be modelled. Using thesetechniques it has been possible to construct a simple mathematical modelto describe the spread of HCV. An expression of the basic reproductivenumber, R0 , has been found and the stability of equilibrium solutions hasbeen investigated.

AB - The Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a global health problem. Sinceits discovery in 1989 it is estimated that 3% of the global population areinfected (approximately 180 million people), with approximately 3-4 millionnew infections each year. HCV is transmitted by means of blood-bloodcontact. The introduction of screening blood products in developed countries,however, means that the injecting drug user (IDU) community is now at thegreatest risk of contracting the disease through the sharing of unsterilisedinjecting equipment. With approximately 75% of those contracting thedisease progressing to chronic infection and death, the disease is a substantialcause of morbidity and mortality. With no vaccination available, the futureeconomic burden is likely to be substantial. It is for this reason that thegreatest impact on the spread of Hepatitis C will come from the interventionmeasures employed by health organisations worldwide.Unfortunately, the epidemiology of the disease and the interactions inthe IDU population is difficult to study and understand. Using mathematicalmodelling techniques it is possible to better understand the intricate relationshipbetween the risk behaviour of the IDU population and the biological propertiesof the disease at its various stages. Furthermore, the likely impact of theintervention strategies, treatment options, and diagnostic tools on the prevalenceof the disease in the IDU population can also be modelled. Using thesetechniques it has been possible to construct a simple mathematical modelto describe the spread of HCV. An expression of the basic reproductivenumber, R0 , has been found and the stability of equilibrium solutions hasbeen investigated.

KW - hepatitis C

KW - mathematical modelling

KW - injecting

KW - drug users

M3 - Poster

ER -