Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Katya Lisenkova, Peter McGregor, Nikos Pappas, Kim Swales, Karen Turner, Robert E. Wright

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

166 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.
Original languageEnglish
Place of PublicationGermany
Number of pages31
Volume2623
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2007

Keywords

  • regional CGE modelling
  • ageing population
  • migration
  • regional policy

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland: a computable general equilibrium analysis'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this