Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Katya Lisenkova, Peter McGregor, Nikos Pappas, Kim Swales, Karen Turner, Robert E. Wright

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

Abstract

This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.
LanguageEnglish
Place of PublicationGermany
Number of pages31
Volume2623
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2007

Fingerprint

Macroeconomic impacts
General equilibrium analysis
Demographic change
Computable general equilibrium
Scotland
Fertility
Demographic trends
Demographics
Mortality rate
Wages
Computable general equilibrium modelling
Economics
Scenarios
Simulation
Labour market
Macroeconomic variables
Policy implications
Mortality
Demographic structure
Migrants

Keywords

  • regional CGE modelling
  • ageing population
  • migration
  • regional policy

Cite this

@techreport{ae8327fb2c154664a419bad4eb13e815,
title = "Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland: a computable general equilibrium analysis",
abstract = "This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.",
keywords = "regional CGE modelling, ageing population, migration, regional policy",
author = "Katya Lisenkova and Peter McGregor and Nikos Pappas and Kim Swales and Karen Turner and Wright, {Robert E.}",
year = "2007",
month = "2",
language = "English",
volume = "2623",
type = "WorkingPaper",

}

Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland : a computable general equilibrium analysis. / Lisenkova, Katya; McGregor, Peter; Pappas, Nikos; Swales, Kim; Turner, Karen; Wright, Robert E.

Germany, 2007.

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

TY - UNPB

T1 - Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland

T2 - a computable general equilibrium analysis

AU - Lisenkova, Katya

AU - McGregor, Peter

AU - Pappas, Nikos

AU - Swales, Kim

AU - Turner, Karen

AU - Wright, Robert E.

PY - 2007/2

Y1 - 2007/2

N2 - This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.

AB - This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.

KW - regional CGE modelling

KW - ageing population

KW - migration

KW - regional policy

UR - http://ftp.iza.org/dp2623.pdf

M3 - Discussion paper

VL - 2623

BT - Macroeconomic impacts of demographic change in Scotland

CY - Germany

ER -