Macroeconomic impact of ageing population in Scotland: a computable general equilibrium analysis

John Swales, Katerina Lisenkova, Peter McGregor, Karen Turner, Robert Wright

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

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Abstract

This paper combines a multi-period economic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the macroeconomic impact of the projected demographic trends in Scotland. Demographic trends are defined by the existing fertility-mortality rates and the level of annual net-migration. We employ a combination of a demographic and a CGE simulation to track the impact of changes in demographic structure upon macroeconomic variables under different scenarios for annual migration. We find that positive net migration can cancel the expected negative impact upon the labour market of other demographic changes. (Pressure on wages, falling employment). However, the required size of the annual net-migration is far higher than the current trends. The policy implication suggested by the results is that active policies are needed to attract migrants. We nevertheless report results when varying fertility and mortality assumptions. The impact of varying those assumptions is rather small.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages31
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2007

Publication series

NameIZA Discussion Series
PublisherInstitute for the Study of Labor
No.263

Keywords

  • ageing
  • labour studies
  • scotland
  • migration
  • ageing population

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