Abstract
We examine whether it is worthwhile eliciting subjective judgements to account for dependency in a multivariate Poisson-Gamma probability model. The challenge of estimating reliability during product design motivated the choice of model class. For the multivariate Poisson-Gamma model we adopt an empirical Bayes methodology to present an estimator with improved accuracy. A simulation study investigates the estimation error of this estimator for different degrees of dependency and examines the impact of dependency being mis-specified when assessed by subjective judgement. Our theoretical and simulation findings give analysts insights about the value of eliciting dependency.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 858-867 |
Number of pages | 10 |
Journal | Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability |
Volume | 237 |
Issue number | 5 |
Early online date | 23 Nov 2021 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 23 Nov 2021 |
Event | The 30th European Safety and Reliability Conference and The 15th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference - Online, Venice, Italy Duration: 1 Nov 2020 → 5 Nov 2020 https://www.esrel2020-psam15.org/ |
Keywords
- multivariate Poisson-Gamma model
- dependency
- empirical Bayes inference
- expert judgement
- product design reliability