Investment planning in electricity production under CO2 price uncertainty

Athanasios A. Rentizelas, Athanasios I. Tolis, Ilias P. Tatsiopoulos

Research output: Contribution to journalSpecial issue

26 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The scope of this work is to investigate the effect that various scenarios for emission allowance price evolution may have on the future electricity generation mix of Greece. The renewable energy generation targets are taken into consideration as a constraint of the system, and the learning rates of the various technologies are included in the calculations.
The national electricity generation system is modelled for long-term analysis and an optimisation method is applied, to determine the optimal generating mix that minimises electricity generation cost, while satisfying the system constraints and incorporating the uncertainty of emission allowance prices. In addition, an investigation is made to identify if a point should be expected when renewable energy will be more cost-effective than conventional fuel electricity generation.
The work is interesting for investment planning in the electricity market, as it may provide directions on which technologies are most probable to dominate the market in the future, and therefore are of interest to be included in the future power portfolios of related investors. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

LanguageEnglish
Pages622-629
Number of pages8
JournalInternational Journal of Production Economics
Volume140
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2012

Fingerprint

Electricity
Planning
Costs
Uncertainty
Co2
Investment planning
Price uncertainty
Electricity generation
Emission allowances
Renewable energy

Keywords

  • electricity market
  • investment planning
  • emissions market
  • optimisation
  • CO2
  • uncertainty

Cite this

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title = "Investment planning in electricity production under CO2 price uncertainty",
abstract = "The scope of this work is to investigate the effect that various scenarios for emission allowance price evolution may have on the future electricity generation mix of Greece. The renewable energy generation targets are taken into consideration as a constraint of the system, and the learning rates of the various technologies are included in the calculations. The national electricity generation system is modelled for long-term analysis and an optimisation method is applied, to determine the optimal generating mix that minimises electricity generation cost, while satisfying the system constraints and incorporating the uncertainty of emission allowance prices. In addition, an investigation is made to identify if a point should be expected when renewable energy will be more cost-effective than conventional fuel electricity generation. The work is interesting for investment planning in the electricity market, as it may provide directions on which technologies are most probable to dominate the market in the future, and therefore are of interest to be included in the future power portfolios of related investors. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",
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Investment planning in electricity production under CO2 price uncertainty. / Rentizelas, Athanasios A.; Tolis, Athanasios I.; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

In: International Journal of Production Economics, Vol. 140, No. 2, 12.2012, p. 622-629.

Research output: Contribution to journalSpecial issue

TY - JOUR

T1 - Investment planning in electricity production under CO2 price uncertainty

AU - Rentizelas, Athanasios A.

AU - Tolis, Athanasios I.

AU - Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.

PY - 2012/12

Y1 - 2012/12

N2 - The scope of this work is to investigate the effect that various scenarios for emission allowance price evolution may have on the future electricity generation mix of Greece. The renewable energy generation targets are taken into consideration as a constraint of the system, and the learning rates of the various technologies are included in the calculations. The national electricity generation system is modelled for long-term analysis and an optimisation method is applied, to determine the optimal generating mix that minimises electricity generation cost, while satisfying the system constraints and incorporating the uncertainty of emission allowance prices. In addition, an investigation is made to identify if a point should be expected when renewable energy will be more cost-effective than conventional fuel electricity generation. The work is interesting for investment planning in the electricity market, as it may provide directions on which technologies are most probable to dominate the market in the future, and therefore are of interest to be included in the future power portfolios of related investors. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

AB - The scope of this work is to investigate the effect that various scenarios for emission allowance price evolution may have on the future electricity generation mix of Greece. The renewable energy generation targets are taken into consideration as a constraint of the system, and the learning rates of the various technologies are included in the calculations. The national electricity generation system is modelled for long-term analysis and an optimisation method is applied, to determine the optimal generating mix that minimises electricity generation cost, while satisfying the system constraints and incorporating the uncertainty of emission allowance prices. In addition, an investigation is made to identify if a point should be expected when renewable energy will be more cost-effective than conventional fuel electricity generation. The work is interesting for investment planning in the electricity market, as it may provide directions on which technologies are most probable to dominate the market in the future, and therefore are of interest to be included in the future power portfolios of related investors. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

KW - electricity market

KW - investment planning

KW - emissions market

KW - optimisation

KW - CO2

KW - uncertainty

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DO - 10.1016/j.ijpe.2010.11.002

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JO - International Journal of Production Economics

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JF - International Journal of Production Economics

SN - 0925-5273

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ER -