Investment planning in electricity production under CO2 price uncertainty

Athanasios Rentizelas, Athanasios Tolis, Ilias Tatsiopoulos

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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The electricity markets have undergone significant changes during the last years. On the one hand, the market deregulation has increased significantly the uncertainty on future electricity prices. On the other hand, the Kyoto protocol and the establishment of emission restrictions, as well as the development of emission trading systems has added another expense stream for conventional fuel electricity producers and a potential income stream for renewable electricity producers. The emission allowance prices are another source of uncertainty for electricity producers.
The scope of this work is to investigate the effect that various scenarios for emission allowance price evolution may have on the orders for new electricity generation technologies and therefore, on the future electricity generation mix of Greece. The renewable energy generation targets are taken into consideration as a constraint of the system, and the learning rates of the various technologies are included in the calculations.
The national electricity generation system is modelled for long-term analysis and an optimisation method is applied, in order to come up with the optimal generating mix that minimises electricity generation cost, while satisfying the national emissions reduction targets and incorporating the uncertainty of emission allowance prices. In addition, an investigation is made to identify if a point should be expected when renewable energy will be more profitable than conventional fuel electricity generation.
The work is interesting for investment planning in the electricity market, as it may provide directions on which technologies are most probable to dominate the market in the future, and therefore are of interest to be included in the future power portfolios of related investors.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 16th International Working Seminar on Production Economics
Place of PublicationInnsbruck, Austria
Number of pages12
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2010
Event16th International Working Seminar on Production Economics - Innsbruck, Austria
Duration: 1 Mar 20105 Mar 2010


Conference16th International Working Seminar on Production Economics


  • emissions market
  • electricity market
  • optimisation
  • investment planning


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