Introducción al modelo clásico de juicio estructurado de expertos: breve recuento del pasado y una aplicación reciente

Oswaldo Morales Nápoles, Roger M Cooke

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The use of experts' opinions in science and decision making has been a common practice especially after the postwar period of the Second World War. The use of these opinions with methods that allow evaluation and validation on a scientific basis is more recent. This article presents an introduction to the classical model of structured expert judgment. This method has been designed to reach a rational consensus. A brief historical overview is presented. Two main concepts of the method (calibration and information) are discussed. A recent application that makes use of the method is briefly presented.
Original languageSpanish
Pages (from-to)309-318
Number of pages10
JournalCIENCIA ergo sum
Volume16
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - 2009

Keywords

  • structured expert judgment
  • decision support
  • Calibrated probability assessment

Cite this