Insights into the quantification and reporting of model-related uncertainty across different disciplines

Emily G. Simmonds, Kwaku Peprah Adjei, Christoffer Wold Andersen, Janne Cathrin Hetle Aspheim, Claudia Battistin, Nicola Bulso, Hannah Christensen, Benjamin Cretois, Ryan Cubero, Iván A. Davidovich, Lisa Dickel, Benjamin Dunn, Etienne Dunn-Sigouin, Karin Dyrstad, Sigurd Einum, Donata Giglio, Haakon Gjerløw, Amélie Godefroidt, Ricardo González-Gil, Soledad Gonzalo CognoFabian Große, Paul Halloran, Mari F. Jensen, John James Kennedy, Peter Egge Langsæther, Jack Laverick, Debora Lederberger, Camille Li, Caitlin Mandeville, Elizabeth Mandeville, Espen Moe, Tobias Navarro Schröder, David Nunan, Jorge Sicacha Parada, Melanie Rae Simpson, Emma Sofie Skarstein, Clemens Spensberger, Richard Stevens, Aneesh Subramanian, Lea Svendsen, Ole Magnus Theisen, Connor Watret, Robert B. O’Hara

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

10 Citations (Scopus)
21 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Quantifying uncertainty associated with our models is the only way we can express how much we know about any phenomenon. Incomplete consideration of model-based uncertainties can lead to overstated conclusions with real world impacts in diverse spheres, including conservation, epidemiology, climate science, and policy. Despite these potentially damaging consequences, we still know little about how different fields quantify and report uncertainty. We introduce the "sources of uncertainty" framework, using it to conduct a systematic audit of model-related uncertainty quantification from seven scientific fields, spanning the biological, physical, and political sciences. Our interdisciplinary audit shows no field fully considers all possible sources of uncertainty, but each has its own best practices alongside shared outstanding challenges. We make ten easy-to-implement recommendations to improve the consistency, completeness, and clarity of reporting on model-related uncertainty. These recommendations serve as a guide to best practices across scientific fields and expand our toolbox for high-quality research.
Original languageEnglish
Article number105512
Number of pages16
JournaliScience
Volume25
Issue number12
Early online date5 Nov 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 31 Dec 2022

Keywords

  • uncertainty
  • modelling
  • statistical
  • policy
  • interdisciplinary

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