Insights from the Covid-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management

Jose J. Gonzalez, Colin Eden

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has activated hundreds of interdependent long-lasting risks across all sectors of society. Zoonotic diseases are on the rise, fuelled by climatic change, by encroachment and destruction of habitats, and by unsustainable practices. Risk assessment and management must be greatly improved to prevent even worse consequences than COVID-19 if the next pandemic is caused by an agent with higher infectiousness and lethality. Insights from a project on systemic pandemic risk management reveal that the interdependency of risks creates cascading effects mediated by millions of vicious cycles which must be addressed to gain control over a pandemic. We propose a method for systemic, cross-sectoral risk assessment that detects the myriad of causal influences resulting from the risks, allowing to identify and mitigate the most potent risks, i.e., those participating in the highest numbers of vicious loops.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInformation Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction
Subtitle of host publicationIFIP AICT 638
EditorsJun Sasaki, Yuko Murayama, Dimiter Velev, Plamena Zlateva
Place of PublicationCham, Switzerland
PublisherSpringer
Pages121-138
Number of pages18
Volume638
ISBN (Electronic)9783031041709
ISBN (Print)9783031041693
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 14 Apr 2022
EventThe 6th IFIP Conference on Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction - Morioka, Japan
Duration: 25 Oct 201727 Oct 2021
Conference number: 6

Publication series

NameIFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology
PublisherSpringer
Volume638
ISSN (Print)1868-4238
ISSN (Electronic)1868-422X

Conference

ConferenceThe 6th IFIP Conference on Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction
Abbreviated titleITDRR 2021
Country/TerritoryJapan
CityMorioka
Period25/10/1727/10/21

Keywords

  • system analysis
  • cascading effects
  • vicious cycle
  • risk system analysis
  • risk mitigation

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