Insights from the Covid-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management

Jose J. Gonzalez; Colin Eden

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-04170-9_9

Insights from the Covid-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management

Jose J. Gonzalez, Colin Eden

Management Science

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

4 Citations (Scopus)

17 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has activated hundreds of interdependent long-lasting risks across all sectors of society. Zoonotic diseases are on the rise, fuelled by climatic change, by encroachment and destruction of habitats, and by unsustainable practices. Risk assessment and management must be greatly improved to prevent even worse consequences than COVID-19 if the next pandemic is caused by an agent with higher infectiousness and lethality. Insights from a project on systemic pandemic risk management reveal that the interdependency of risks creates cascading effects mediated by millions of vicious cycles which must be addressed to gain control over a pandemic. We propose a method for systemic, cross-sectoral risk assessment that detects the myriad of causal influences resulting from the risks, allowing to identify and mitigate the most potent risks, i.e., those participating in the highest numbers of vicious loops.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction
Subtitle of host publication	IFIP AICT 638
Editors	Jun Sasaki, Yuko Murayama, Dimiter Velev, Plamena Zlateva
Place of Publication	Cham, Switzerland
Publisher	Springer
Pages	121-138
Number of pages	18
Volume	638
ISBN (Electronic)	9783031041709
ISBN (Print)	9783031041693
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04170-9_9
Publication status	Published - 14 Apr 2022
Event	The 6th IFIP Conference on Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction - Morioka, Japan Duration: 25 Oct 2017 → 27 Oct 2021 Conference number: 6

Publication series

Name	IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology
Publisher	Springer
Volume	638
ISSN (Print)	1868-4238
ISSN (Electronic)	1868-422X

Conference

Conference	The 6th IFIP Conference on Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction
Abbreviated title	ITDRR 2021
Country/Territory	Japan
City	Morioka
Period	25/10/17 → 27/10/21

Keywords

system analysis
cascading effects
vicious cycle
risk system analysis
risk mitigation

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-031-04170-9_9

Gonzalez-Eden-ITDRR-2022-Insights-from-the-Covid-19-pandemic-for-systemic-risk-assessment-and-managementAccepted author manuscript, 743 KBLicence: Strath_1

Cite this

Gonzalez, J. J., & Eden, C. (2022). Insights from the Covid-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management. In J. Sasaki, Y. Murayama, D. Velev, & P. Zlateva (Eds.), Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction: IFIP AICT 638 (Vol. 638, pp. 121-138). (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology; Vol. 638). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04170-9_9

Gonzalez, Jose J. ; Eden, Colin. / Insights from the Covid-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management. Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction: IFIP AICT 638. editor / Jun Sasaki ; Yuko Murayama ; Dimiter Velev ; Plamena Zlateva. Vol. 638 Cham, Switzerland : Springer, 2022. pp. 121-138 (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology).

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abstract = "The COVID-19 pandemic has activated hundreds of interdependent long-lasting risks across all sectors of society. Zoonotic diseases are on the rise, fuelled by climatic change, by encroachment and destruction of habitats, and by unsustainable practices. Risk assessment and management must be greatly improved to prevent even worse consequences than COVID-19 if the next pandemic is caused by an agent with higher infectiousness and lethality. Insights from a project on systemic pandemic risk management reveal that the interdependency of risks creates cascading effects mediated by millions of vicious cycles which must be addressed to gain control over a pandemic. We propose a method for systemic, cross-sectoral risk assessment that detects the myriad of causal influences resulting from the risks, allowing to identify and mitigate the most potent risks, i.e., those participating in the highest numbers of vicious loops.",

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author = "Gonzalez, {Jose J.} and Colin Eden",

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Gonzalez, JJ & Eden, C 2022, Insights from the Covid-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management. in J Sasaki, Y Murayama, D Velev & P Zlateva (eds), Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction: IFIP AICT 638. vol. 638, IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology, vol. 638, Springer, Cham, Switzerland, pp. 121-138, The 6th IFIP Conference on Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction, Morioka, Japan, 25/10/17. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-04170-9_9

Insights from the Covid-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management. / Gonzalez, Jose J.; Eden, Colin.
Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction: IFIP AICT 638. ed. / Jun Sasaki; Yuko Murayama; Dimiter Velev; Plamena Zlateva. Vol. 638 Cham, Switzerland: Springer, 2022. p. 121-138 (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology; Vol. 638).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution book

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AB - The COVID-19 pandemic has activated hundreds of interdependent long-lasting risks across all sectors of society. Zoonotic diseases are on the rise, fuelled by climatic change, by encroachment and destruction of habitats, and by unsustainable practices. Risk assessment and management must be greatly improved to prevent even worse consequences than COVID-19 if the next pandemic is caused by an agent with higher infectiousness and lethality. Insights from a project on systemic pandemic risk management reveal that the interdependency of risks creates cascading effects mediated by millions of vicious cycles which must be addressed to gain control over a pandemic. We propose a method for systemic, cross-sectoral risk assessment that detects the myriad of causal influences resulting from the risks, allowing to identify and mitigate the most potent risks, i.e., those participating in the highest numbers of vicious loops.

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Gonzalez JJ, Eden C. Insights from the Covid-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management. In Sasaki J, Murayama Y, Velev D, Zlateva P, editors, Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction: IFIP AICT 638. Vol. 638. Cham, Switzerland: Springer. 2022. p. 121-138. (IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-04170-9_9

Insights from the Covid-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

Keywords

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