Influence of statistical uncertainty of component reliability estimations on offshore wind farm availability

Matti Niclas Scheu, Athanasios Kolios, Tim Fischer, Feargal Brennan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Offshore wind turbine reliability, one of the industry's biggest sources of uncertainty, is the focus of the present paper. Specifically the impact of uncertain component failure distributions at constant failure rates has been investigated with respect to its implications for wind farm availability. A fully probabilistic offshore wind simulation model has been applied to quantify results; effects shown in this paper underline the significant impact that failure probability distributions have on asset performance evaluation. It was found that wind farm availability numbers may vary in the range up to 20 % just by changing the distributions of failure to a different pattern; in particular those scenarios in which extensive failure accumulation occurred led to significant losses in production. Results are interpreted and discussed mainly from the viewpoint of an offshore wind farm developer, owner and operator, with implications underlined for application in state-of-the-art offshore wind O&M (Operations and Maintenance) models and simulation tools.

LanguageEnglish
Pages28-39
Number of pages12
JournalReliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume168
Early online date5 May 2017
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2017

Fingerprint

Offshore wind farms
Availability
Offshore wind turbines
Probability distributions
Uncertainty
Industry

Keywords

  • statistical uncertainty
  • maintenance modelling
  • offshore wind energy
  • operations and maintenance
  • reliability

Cite this

@article{bd4cbfc9c7b346d998cb53b1bbdba3d4,
title = "Influence of statistical uncertainty of component reliability estimations on offshore wind farm availability",
abstract = "Offshore wind turbine reliability, one of the industry's biggest sources of uncertainty, is the focus of the present paper. Specifically the impact of uncertain component failure distributions at constant failure rates has been investigated with respect to its implications for wind farm availability. A fully probabilistic offshore wind simulation model has been applied to quantify results; effects shown in this paper underline the significant impact that failure probability distributions have on asset performance evaluation. It was found that wind farm availability numbers may vary in the range up to 20 {\%} just by changing the distributions of failure to a different pattern; in particular those scenarios in which extensive failure accumulation occurred led to significant losses in production. Results are interpreted and discussed mainly from the viewpoint of an offshore wind farm developer, owner and operator, with implications underlined for application in state-of-the-art offshore wind O&M (Operations and Maintenance) models and simulation tools.",
keywords = "statistical uncertainty, maintenance modelling, offshore wind energy, operations and maintenance, reliability",
author = "Scheu, {Matti Niclas} and Athanasios Kolios and Tim Fischer and Feargal Brennan",
year = "2017",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.021",
language = "English",
volume = "168",
pages = "28--39",
journal = "Reliability Engineering and System Safety",
issn = "0951-8320",

}

Influence of statistical uncertainty of component reliability estimations on offshore wind farm availability. / Scheu, Matti Niclas; Kolios, Athanasios; Fischer, Tim; Brennan, Feargal.

In: Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Vol. 168, 01.12.2017, p. 28-39.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Influence of statistical uncertainty of component reliability estimations on offshore wind farm availability

AU - Scheu, Matti Niclas

AU - Kolios, Athanasios

AU - Fischer, Tim

AU - Brennan, Feargal

PY - 2017/12/1

Y1 - 2017/12/1

N2 - Offshore wind turbine reliability, one of the industry's biggest sources of uncertainty, is the focus of the present paper. Specifically the impact of uncertain component failure distributions at constant failure rates has been investigated with respect to its implications for wind farm availability. A fully probabilistic offshore wind simulation model has been applied to quantify results; effects shown in this paper underline the significant impact that failure probability distributions have on asset performance evaluation. It was found that wind farm availability numbers may vary in the range up to 20 % just by changing the distributions of failure to a different pattern; in particular those scenarios in which extensive failure accumulation occurred led to significant losses in production. Results are interpreted and discussed mainly from the viewpoint of an offshore wind farm developer, owner and operator, with implications underlined for application in state-of-the-art offshore wind O&M (Operations and Maintenance) models and simulation tools.

AB - Offshore wind turbine reliability, one of the industry's biggest sources of uncertainty, is the focus of the present paper. Specifically the impact of uncertain component failure distributions at constant failure rates has been investigated with respect to its implications for wind farm availability. A fully probabilistic offshore wind simulation model has been applied to quantify results; effects shown in this paper underline the significant impact that failure probability distributions have on asset performance evaluation. It was found that wind farm availability numbers may vary in the range up to 20 % just by changing the distributions of failure to a different pattern; in particular those scenarios in which extensive failure accumulation occurred led to significant losses in production. Results are interpreted and discussed mainly from the viewpoint of an offshore wind farm developer, owner and operator, with implications underlined for application in state-of-the-art offshore wind O&M (Operations and Maintenance) models and simulation tools.

KW - statistical uncertainty

KW - maintenance modelling

KW - offshore wind energy

KW - operations and maintenance

KW - reliability

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85030683150&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.021

DO - 10.1016/j.ress.2017.05.021

M3 - Article

VL - 168

SP - 28

EP - 39

JO - Reliability Engineering and System Safety

T2 - Reliability Engineering and System Safety

JF - Reliability Engineering and System Safety

SN - 0951-8320

ER -