Incorporating dependence in risk assessments of future antibiotic resistance: Eliciting and modelling probabilistic dependence

Abigail Colson, Christoph Werner, Tim Bedford

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract


Healthcare systems rely on having a range of effective antibiotics available to treat patients with resistant infections. The threat of multidrug resistance means that assuming rates of resistance to different antibiotics are independent may severely underestimate risks to the current portfolio of drugs. We illustrate the problem and model dependence between certain bug-drug combinations. We present a method for eliciting dependence from experts in a formal and structured manner that promotes transparency and reproducibility of the results and mitigates against common cognitive fallacies.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 27 Jul 2019
EventINFORMS Healthcare 2019 - Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, United States
Duration: 26 Jul 201930 Jul 2019


ConferenceINFORMS Healthcare 2019
CountryUnited States
Internet address


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