Incorporating dependence in risk assessments of future antibiotic resistance: Eliciting and modelling probabilistic dependence

Abigail Colson, Christoph Werner, Tim Bedford

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

Abstract

Healthcare systems rely on having a range of effective antibiotics available to treat patients with resistant infections. The threat of multidrug resistance means that assuming rates of resistance to different antibiotics are independent may severely underestimate risks to the current portfolio of drugs. We illustrate the problem and model dependence between certain bug-drug combinations. We present a method for eliciting dependence from experts in a formal and structured manner that promotes transparency and reproducibility of the results and mitigates against common cognitive fallacies.

Conference

ConferenceINFORMS Healthcare 2019
CountryUnited States
CityCambridge
Period26/07/1930/07/19
Internet address

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Antibiotics
Risk assessment
Transparency

Cite this

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abstract = "Healthcare systems rely on having a range of effective antibiotics available to treat patients with resistant infections. The threat of multidrug resistance means that assuming rates of resistance to different antibiotics are independent may severely underestimate risks to the current portfolio of drugs. We illustrate the problem and model dependence between certain bug-drug combinations. We present a method for eliciting dependence from experts in a formal and structured manner that promotes transparency and reproducibility of the results and mitigates against common cognitive fallacies.",
author = "Abigail Colson and Christoph Werner and Tim Bedford",
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Incorporating dependence in risk assessments of future antibiotic resistance : Eliciting and modelling probabilistic dependence. / Colson, Abigail; Werner, Christoph; Bedford, Tim.

2019. Abstract from INFORMS Healthcare 2019, Cambridge, United States.

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstract

TY - CONF

T1 - Incorporating dependence in risk assessments of future antibiotic resistance

T2 - Eliciting and modelling probabilistic dependence

AU - Colson, Abigail

AU - Werner, Christoph

AU - Bedford, Tim

PY - 2019/7/27

Y1 - 2019/7/27

N2 - Healthcare systems rely on having a range of effective antibiotics available to treat patients with resistant infections. The threat of multidrug resistance means that assuming rates of resistance to different antibiotics are independent may severely underestimate risks to the current portfolio of drugs. We illustrate the problem and model dependence between certain bug-drug combinations. We present a method for eliciting dependence from experts in a formal and structured manner that promotes transparency and reproducibility of the results and mitigates against common cognitive fallacies.

AB - Healthcare systems rely on having a range of effective antibiotics available to treat patients with resistant infections. The threat of multidrug resistance means that assuming rates of resistance to different antibiotics are independent may severely underestimate risks to the current portfolio of drugs. We illustrate the problem and model dependence between certain bug-drug combinations. We present a method for eliciting dependence from experts in a formal and structured manner that promotes transparency and reproducibility of the results and mitigates against common cognitive fallacies.

UR - http://meetings2.informs.org/wordpress/healthcare2019/schedule/

M3 - Abstract

ER -