Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgement: a six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process

Ian Belton, Alice MacDonald, George Wright, Iain Hamlin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

This paper provides a practical, systematic approach to the design and delivery of a Delphi survey. We prescribe a sequence of six steps to do with (i) setting up the Delphi process – including selecting respondents and generating a requisite number of focal issues, (ii) software/delivery choice, (iii) developing question items and response scales, (iv) providing feedback between a requisite number of Delphi rounds, (v) preventing and dealing with panellist drop out, and (vi) analysing and presenting the Delphi yield. At each step, the Delphi administrator has a range of choice options and we provide discussion of the pros and cons of each option - in order that the overall design and delivery of a particular Delphi survey is both well-founded and defensible.
LanguageEnglish
JournalTechnological Forecasting and Social Change
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 9 Jul 2019

Fingerprint

Prescriptions
Administrative Personnel
Feedback
Software
Surveys and Questionnaires
Prescription
Delphi method
Delphi
Delphi survey

Keywords

  • Delphi method
  • consensus
  • expert
  • judgement
  • methodology

Cite this

@article{347afe941d3744e9ad5b7cf49e439d18,
title = "Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgement: a six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process",
abstract = "This paper provides a practical, systematic approach to the design and delivery of a Delphi survey. We prescribe a sequence of six steps to do with (i) setting up the Delphi process – including selecting respondents and generating a requisite number of focal issues, (ii) software/delivery choice, (iii) developing question items and response scales, (iv) providing feedback between a requisite number of Delphi rounds, (v) preventing and dealing with panellist drop out, and (vi) analysing and presenting the Delphi yield. At each step, the Delphi administrator has a range of choice options and we provide discussion of the pros and cons of each option - in order that the overall design and delivery of a particular Delphi survey is both well-founded and defensible.",
keywords = "Delphi method, consensus, expert, judgement, methodology",
author = "Ian Belton and Alice MacDonald and George Wright and Iain Hamlin",
year = "2019",
month = "7",
day = "9",
language = "English",
journal = "Technological Forecasting and Social Change",
issn = "0040-1625",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgement

T2 - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

AU - Belton, Ian

AU - MacDonald, Alice

AU - Wright, George

AU - Hamlin, Iain

PY - 2019/7/9

Y1 - 2019/7/9

N2 - This paper provides a practical, systematic approach to the design and delivery of a Delphi survey. We prescribe a sequence of six steps to do with (i) setting up the Delphi process – including selecting respondents and generating a requisite number of focal issues, (ii) software/delivery choice, (iii) developing question items and response scales, (iv) providing feedback between a requisite number of Delphi rounds, (v) preventing and dealing with panellist drop out, and (vi) analysing and presenting the Delphi yield. At each step, the Delphi administrator has a range of choice options and we provide discussion of the pros and cons of each option - in order that the overall design and delivery of a particular Delphi survey is both well-founded and defensible.

AB - This paper provides a practical, systematic approach to the design and delivery of a Delphi survey. We prescribe a sequence of six steps to do with (i) setting up the Delphi process – including selecting respondents and generating a requisite number of focal issues, (ii) software/delivery choice, (iii) developing question items and response scales, (iv) providing feedback between a requisite number of Delphi rounds, (v) preventing and dealing with panellist drop out, and (vi) analysing and presenting the Delphi yield. At each step, the Delphi administrator has a range of choice options and we provide discussion of the pros and cons of each option - in order that the overall design and delivery of a particular Delphi survey is both well-founded and defensible.

KW - Delphi method

KW - consensus

KW - expert

KW - judgement

KW - methodology

UR - https://www.journals.elsevier.com/technological-forecasting-and-social-change

M3 - Article

JO - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

JF - Technological Forecasting and Social Change

SN - 0040-1625

ER -