Impact of operational losses on the levelized costs of energy and in the economic viability of offshore wind power projects

Offshore wind power offers a viable solution to the challenge of reducing fossil fuel dependency. However, certain offshore wind projects encounter challenges in meeting expected returns, particularly over the medium to long term. This study addresses the discrepancy between assumed and actual cost behaviors in techno-economic assessments of wind farm projects. The present study evaluates their impact of operational loss trends (e.g. increased failure rates, aging, potential curtailment) on project viability through a comprehensive techno-economic assessment. To this end, key metrics including Net Present Value and Levelized Cost of Energy, complemented by stochastic analyzes are explored through Monte Carlo Simulation and sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that costs may exceed those of the reference scenario by up to 21.6% in the worst-case scenario, highlighting the critical need for proactive monitoring and management of operational losses.