Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds

P. Gale, B. Stephenson, A. Brouwer, M. Martinez, A. de la Torre, J. Bosch, M. Foley-Fisher, P. Bonilauri, A. Lindstrom, R.G. Ulrich, C.J. de Vos, M. Scremin, Z. Liu, Louise Anne Kelly, M.J. Munoz

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Abstract

To predict the risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in livestock in Europe introduced through immature Hyalomma marginatum ticks on migratory birds under current conditions and in the decade 2075-2084 under a climate-change scenario. A spatial risk map of Europe comprising 14 282 grid cells (25 × 25 km) was constructed using three data sources: (i) ranges and abundances of four species of bird which migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe each spring, namely Willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus), Northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Tree pipit (Anthus trivialis) and Common quail (Coturnix coturnix); (ii) UK Met Office HadRM3 spring temperatures for prediction of moulting success of immature H. marginatum ticks and (iii) livestock densities. On average, the number of grid cells in Europe predicted to have at least one CCHFV incursion in livestock in spring was 1·04 per year for the decade 2005-2014 and 1·03 per year for the decade 2075-2084. In general with the assumed climate-change scenario, the risk increased in northern Europe but decreased in central and southern Europe, although there is considerable local variation in the trends. The absolute risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through ticks introduced by four abundant species of migratory bird (totalling 120 million individual birds) is very low. Climate change has opposing effects, increasing the success of the moult of the nymphal ticks into adults but decreasing the projected abundance of birds by 34% in this model. For Europe, climate change is not predicted to increase the overall risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through infected ticks introduced by these four migratory bird species.
LanguageEnglish
Pages246-257
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Applied Microbiology
Volume112
Issue number2
Early online date19 Dec 2011
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2012

Fingerprint

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus
Climate Change
Livestock
Birds
Ticks
Oenanthe
Coturnix
Salix
Molting
Songbirds
Quail
Africa South of the Sahara
Information Storage and Retrieval
Temperature

Keywords

  • climate change
  • Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever
  • Europe
  • geogrphical risk assessment
  • migratory birds

Cite this

Gale, P. ; Stephenson, B. ; Brouwer, A. ; Martinez, M. ; de la Torre, A. ; Bosch, J. ; Foley-Fisher, M. ; Bonilauri, P. ; Lindstrom, A. ; Ulrich, R.G. ; de Vos, C.J. ; Scremin, M. ; Liu, Z. ; Kelly, Louise Anne ; Munoz, M.J. / Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds. In: Journal of Applied Microbiology. 2012 ; Vol. 112, No. 2. pp. 246-257.
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abstract = "To predict the risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) in livestock in Europe introduced through immature Hyalomma marginatum ticks on migratory birds under current conditions and in the decade 2075-2084 under a climate-change scenario. A spatial risk map of Europe comprising 14 282 grid cells (25 × 25 km) was constructed using three data sources: (i) ranges and abundances of four species of bird which migrate from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe each spring, namely Willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus), Northern wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe), Tree pipit (Anthus trivialis) and Common quail (Coturnix coturnix); (ii) UK Met Office HadRM3 spring temperatures for prediction of moulting success of immature H. marginatum ticks and (iii) livestock densities. On average, the number of grid cells in Europe predicted to have at least one CCHFV incursion in livestock in spring was 1·04 per year for the decade 2005-2014 and 1·03 per year for the decade 2075-2084. In general with the assumed climate-change scenario, the risk increased in northern Europe but decreased in central and southern Europe, although there is considerable local variation in the trends. The absolute risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through ticks introduced by four abundant species of migratory bird (totalling 120 million individual birds) is very low. Climate change has opposing effects, increasing the success of the moult of the nymphal ticks into adults but decreasing the projected abundance of birds by 34{\%} in this model. For Europe, climate change is not predicted to increase the overall risk of incursion of CCHFV in livestock through infected ticks introduced by these four migratory bird species.",
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author = "P. Gale and B. Stephenson and A. Brouwer and M. Martinez and {de la Torre}, A. and J. Bosch and M. Foley-Fisher and P. Bonilauri and A. Lindstrom and R.G. Ulrich and {de Vos}, C.J. and M. Scremin and Z. Liu and Kelly, {Louise Anne} and M.J. Munoz",
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Gale, P, Stephenson, B, Brouwer, A, Martinez, M, de la Torre, A, Bosch, J, Foley-Fisher, M, Bonilauri, P, Lindstrom, A, Ulrich, RG, de Vos, CJ, Scremin, M, Liu, Z, Kelly, LA & Munoz, MJ 2012, 'Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds' Journal of Applied Microbiology, vol. 112, no. 2, pp. 246-257. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2672.2011.05203.x

Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds. / Gale, P.; Stephenson, B.; Brouwer, A.; Martinez, M.; de la Torre, A.; Bosch, J.; Foley-Fisher, M.; Bonilauri, P.; Lindstrom, A.; Ulrich, R.G.; de Vos, C.J.; Scremin, M.; Liu, Z.; Kelly, Louise Anne; Munoz, M.J.

In: Journal of Applied Microbiology, Vol. 112, No. 2, 02.2012, p. 246-257.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - Impact of climate change on risk of incursion of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in livestock in Europe through migratory birds

AU - Gale, P.

AU - Stephenson, B.

AU - Brouwer, A.

AU - Martinez, M.

AU - de la Torre, A.

AU - Bosch, J.

AU - Foley-Fisher, M.

AU - Bonilauri, P.

AU - Lindstrom, A.

AU - Ulrich, R.G.

AU - de Vos, C.J.

AU - Scremin, M.

AU - Liu, Z.

AU - Kelly, Louise Anne

AU - Munoz, M.J.

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KW - climate change

KW - Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever

KW - Europe

KW - geogrphical risk assessment

KW - migratory birds

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