Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper describes a process for generating scenarios of future electricity network development, and of technologies which might be applied in the electricity supply industry under different future circumstances. The process
begins by considering scenarios at the most distant timeframe desired, and then working backwards to identify a set of shorterterm scenarios which interpolate between the long-term picture and current circumstances and trends. The paper discusses important factors which are taken into account in the initial longterm
scenario generation, and in the identification of their corresponding shorter-term counterparts. The process is illustrated using its results in generating sets of scenarios, addressing the years 2020 and 2050, of future development of the electricity system in Great Britain. Examples of the resulting medium and long-term scenarios are described and illustrated pictorially.

Conference

Conference2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems
CountryNetherlands
CityAmsterdam
Period18/11/05 → …

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Electricity
Electric utilities

Keywords

  • character generation
  • economic forecasting
  • uncertainty
  • power system economics
  • power generation economics
  • power generation
  • fuel economy
  • fossil fuels
  • environmental economics
  • electricity supply industry

Cite this

Elders, I. M., Ault, G. W., Galloway, S. J., & McDonald, J. R. (2005). Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development. Paper presented at 2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems, Amsterdam, Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1109/FPS.2005.204306
Elders, I.M. ; Ault, G.W. ; Galloway, S.J. ; McDonald, J.R. / Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development. Paper presented at 2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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title = "Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development",
abstract = "This paper describes a process for generating scenarios of future electricity network development, and of technologies which might be applied in the electricity supply industry under different future circumstances. The processbegins by considering scenarios at the most distant timeframe desired, and then working backwards to identify a set of shorterterm scenarios which interpolate between the long-term picture and current circumstances and trends. The paper discusses important factors which are taken into account in the initial longtermscenario generation, and in the identification of their corresponding shorter-term counterparts. The process is illustrated using its results in generating sets of scenarios, addressing the years 2020 and 2050, of future development of the electricity system in Great Britain. Examples of the resulting medium and long-term scenarios are described and illustrated pictorially.",
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author = "I.M. Elders and G.W. Ault and S.J. Galloway and J.R. McDonald",
note = "Requires Template change to Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution; 2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems ; Conference date: 18-11-2005",
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Elders, IM, Ault, GW, Galloway, SJ & McDonald, JR 2005, 'Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development' Paper presented at 2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 18/11/05, . https://doi.org/10.1109/FPS.2005.204306

Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development. / Elders, I.M.; Ault, G.W.; Galloway, S.J.; McDonald, J.R.

2005. Paper presented at 2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems, Amsterdam, Netherlands.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

TY - CONF

T1 - Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development

AU - Elders, I.M.

AU - Ault, G.W.

AU - Galloway, S.J.

AU - McDonald, J.R.

N1 - Requires Template change to Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

PY - 2005

Y1 - 2005

N2 - This paper describes a process for generating scenarios of future electricity network development, and of technologies which might be applied in the electricity supply industry under different future circumstances. The processbegins by considering scenarios at the most distant timeframe desired, and then working backwards to identify a set of shorterterm scenarios which interpolate between the long-term picture and current circumstances and trends. The paper discusses important factors which are taken into account in the initial longtermscenario generation, and in the identification of their corresponding shorter-term counterparts. The process is illustrated using its results in generating sets of scenarios, addressing the years 2020 and 2050, of future development of the electricity system in Great Britain. Examples of the resulting medium and long-term scenarios are described and illustrated pictorially.

AB - This paper describes a process for generating scenarios of future electricity network development, and of technologies which might be applied in the electricity supply industry under different future circumstances. The processbegins by considering scenarios at the most distant timeframe desired, and then working backwards to identify a set of shorterterm scenarios which interpolate between the long-term picture and current circumstances and trends. The paper discusses important factors which are taken into account in the initial longtermscenario generation, and in the identification of their corresponding shorter-term counterparts. The process is illustrated using its results in generating sets of scenarios, addressing the years 2020 and 2050, of future development of the electricity system in Great Britain. Examples of the resulting medium and long-term scenarios are described and illustrated pictorially.

KW - character generation

KW - economic forecasting

KW - uncertainty

KW - power system economics

KW - power generation economics

KW - power generation

KW - fuel economy

KW - fossil fuels

KW - environmental economics

KW - electricity supply industry

U2 - 10.1109/FPS.2005.204306

DO - 10.1109/FPS.2005.204306

M3 - Paper

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Elders IM, Ault GW, Galloway SJ, McDonald JR. Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development. 2005. Paper presented at 2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems, Amsterdam, Netherlands. https://doi.org/10.1109/FPS.2005.204306