Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development

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Abstract

This paper describes a process for generating scenarios of future electricity network development, and of technologies which might be applied in the electricity supply industry under different future circumstances. The process
begins by considering scenarios at the most distant timeframe desired, and then working backwards to identify a set of shorterterm scenarios which interpolate between the long-term picture and current circumstances and trends. The paper discusses important factors which are taken into account in the initial longterm
scenario generation, and in the identification of their corresponding shorter-term counterparts. The process is illustrated using its results in generating sets of scenarios, addressing the years 2020 and 2050, of future development of the electricity system in Great Britain. Examples of the resulting medium and long-term scenarios are described and illustrated pictorially.
Original languageEnglish
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2005
Event2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems - Amsterdam, Netherlands
Duration: 18 Nov 2005 → …

Conference

Conference2005 International Conference on Future Power Systems
CountryNetherlands
CityAmsterdam
Period18/11/05 → …

Keywords

  • character generation
  • economic forecasting
  • uncertainty
  • power system economics
  • power generation economics
  • power generation
  • fuel economy
  • fossil fuels
  • environmental economics
  • electricity supply industry

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