How to predict the 2014 World Cup winner (in one simple equation): determinants of national football team results 2011-2013 - a new methodology

N. Scelles, W. Andreff, Kevin Kane (Editor)

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This short note sets out an approach to predicting national football team results using a new, hybrid economics-based methodology. It draws on previous work in the field and was tested on almost 3,000 international football matches over the period 2011- 2013. The same methodology can be used in a predicative way and could be used, for example, to predict the result of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. A forthcoming article to be published by the Fraser Economic Commentary will seek to predict Scotland’s likely progress in the forthcoming Euro 2016 competition.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)100-103
Number of pages4
JournalFraser of Allander Economic Commentary
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 18 Jun 2014



  • world cup 2014
  • national football teams
  • Fraser of Allander

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