Household-differentiated demand modelling for communities

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Abstract

Micro-generation schemes are increasingly being proposed for and incorporated in new-build housing developments. Community composition dependant demand prediction for such schemes is poorly understood and modelled. Using a previously developed higher-order Markovchain occupancy model, differentiated for different household types, an occupancy-driven electricity demand model has been developed from high resolution appliance-level data to realistically distribute demand cycles for individual households. The model incorporates a novel event-based method for linking the time-of-day probability of appliance cycles relative to occupancy, which allows accurate replication of expected demand patterns and improves computational efficiency compared to existing models. Additional socio-economic and behavioural factors are also included to better capture demand diversity.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication14th International Conference of IBPSA - Building Simulation 2015, BS 2015, Conference Proceedings
Place of Publication[Hyderabad]
Pages1821-1828
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 7 Dec 2015
Event14th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association, BS 2015 - Hyderabad, India
Duration: 7 Dec 20159 Dec 2015

Conference

Conference14th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association, BS 2015
CountryIndia
CityHyderabad
Period7/12/159/12/15

Keywords

  • micro generation
  • occupancy modelling
  • utilities demands

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