Future wind and wave climate projections in the Indian Ocean based on a super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S model projection

Bahareh Kamranzad; Nobuhito Mori

doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7

Future wind and wave climate projections in the Indian Ocean based on a super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S model projection

Bahareh Kamranzad^*, Nobuhito Mori

^*Corresponding author for this work

Civil And Environmental Engineering

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

41 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study, the impact of climate change on wind and wave characteristics has been assessed using super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S wind data and numerical modeling over the Indian Ocean. Wave characteristics were generated in two 25-year periods covering historical and future projections (RCP8.5), and the assessment indicated that, generally, the spatial distributions of wind speed, significant wave height (H_s) and mean spectral wave period (T_m01) will not dramatically change in the future. The assessment also indicated that the wind direction reversing pattern during monsoons will remain similar. Moreover, future westerly winds in the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) will shift to the south and a decrease in future wind speed north of the equator will occur, espearound the equator due to cially during winter. The relative change of H_s will be less than wind speed the predominance of swells transferring from the SIO. There will be no considerable change in the future T_m01, except during autumn in the area north of the equator. A novel climate stability index is suggested showing that the semi-enclosed seas in the NIO and the western coasts of India and the Maldives will be areas with the least stability in terms of wave climate. Despite experiencing more intense wind and wave climates, the overall climate will be more stable in the SIO than the NIO.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2391-2410
Number of pages	20
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	53
Issue number	3-4
Early online date	20 Jun 2019
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7
Publication status	Published - 15 Aug 2019

Funding

The authors are thankful to everyone who supported modifications of the source code to fix the problem with the drag coefficient in SWAN v. 41.10, including (in alphabetic order) Adem Akpinar, George Lavidas, Tomoya Shimura, Gerbrant van Vledder and Marcel Zijlema. The authors are also grateful to Katherine Cox for editing the manuscript. Part of the research was supported by the Hakubi Center for Advanced Research at Kyoto University, the framework of the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU Program), and JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research—KAKENHI—supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

climate change
Indian Ocean
MRI-AGCM3.2S
RCP8.5
SWAN
wave model

Access to Document

10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7

Projection of wave climate and wave energy due to global warming
Kamranzad, B. (Principal Investigator)
29/11/16 → 30/09/18
Project: Research Fellowship

Cite this

@article{7d43d3676eae46528b7d79eb83c3fa32,

title = "Future wind and wave climate projections in the Indian Ocean based on a super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S model projection",

abstract = "In this study, the impact of climate change on wind and wave characteristics has been assessed using super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S wind data and numerical modeling over the Indian Ocean. Wave characteristics were generated in two 25-year periods covering historical and future projections (RCP8.5), and the assessment indicated that, generally, the spatial distributions of wind speed, significant wave height (Hs) and mean spectral wave period (Tm01) will not dramatically change in the future. The assessment also indicated that the wind direction reversing pattern during monsoons will remain similar. Moreover, future westerly winds in the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) will shift to the south and a decrease in future wind speed north of the equator will occur, espearound the equator due to cially during winter. The relative change of Hs will be less than wind speed the predominance of swells transferring from the SIO. There will be no considerable change in the future Tm01, except during autumn in the area north of the equator. A novel climate stability index is suggested showing that the semi-enclosed seas in the NIO and the western coasts of India and the Maldives will be areas with the least stability in terms of wave climate. Despite experiencing more intense wind and wave climates, the overall climate will be more stable in the SIO than the NIO.",

keywords = "climate change, Indian Ocean, MRI-AGCM3.2S, RCP8.5, SWAN, wave model",

author = "Bahareh Kamranzad and Nobuhito Mori",

note = "Funding Information: The authors are thankful to everyone who supported modifications of the source code to fix the problem with the drag coefficient in SWAN v. 41.10, including (in alphabetic order) Adem Akpinar, George Lavidas, Tomoya Shimura, Gerbrant van Vledder and Marcel Zijlema. The authors are also grateful to Katherine Cox for editing the manuscript. Part of the research was supported by the Hakubi Center for Advanced Research at Kyoto University, the framework of the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU Program), and JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research—KAKENHI—supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Kamranzad, B., Mori, N. Future wind and wave climate projections in the Indian Ocean based on a super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S model projection. Clim Dyn 53, 2391–2410 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7 ",

year = "2019",

month = aug,

day = "15",

doi = "10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7",

language = "English",

volume = "53",

pages = "2391--2410",

journal = "Climate Dynamics",

issn = "0930-7575",

number = "3-4",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future wind and wave climate projections in the Indian Ocean based on a super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S model projection

AU - Kamranzad, Bahareh

AU - Mori, Nobuhito

N1 - Funding Information: The authors are thankful to everyone who supported modifications of the source code to fix the problem with the drag coefficient in SWAN v. 41.10, including (in alphabetic order) Adem Akpinar, George Lavidas, Tomoya Shimura, Gerbrant van Vledder and Marcel Zijlema. The authors are also grateful to Katherine Cox for editing the manuscript. Part of the research was supported by the Hakubi Center for Advanced Research at Kyoto University, the framework of the Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU Program), and JSPS Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research—KAKENHI—supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology-Japan (MEXT). Publisher Copyright: © 2019, Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. Kamranzad, B., Mori, N. Future wind and wave climate projections in the Indian Ocean based on a super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S model projection. Clim Dyn 53, 2391–2410 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7

PY - 2019/8/15

Y1 - 2019/8/15

N2 - In this study, the impact of climate change on wind and wave characteristics has been assessed using super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S wind data and numerical modeling over the Indian Ocean. Wave characteristics were generated in two 25-year periods covering historical and future projections (RCP8.5), and the assessment indicated that, generally, the spatial distributions of wind speed, significant wave height (Hs) and mean spectral wave period (Tm01) will not dramatically change in the future. The assessment also indicated that the wind direction reversing pattern during monsoons will remain similar. Moreover, future westerly winds in the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) will shift to the south and a decrease in future wind speed north of the equator will occur, espearound the equator due to cially during winter. The relative change of Hs will be less than wind speed the predominance of swells transferring from the SIO. There will be no considerable change in the future Tm01, except during autumn in the area north of the equator. A novel climate stability index is suggested showing that the semi-enclosed seas in the NIO and the western coasts of India and the Maldives will be areas with the least stability in terms of wave climate. Despite experiencing more intense wind and wave climates, the overall climate will be more stable in the SIO than the NIO.

AB - In this study, the impact of climate change on wind and wave characteristics has been assessed using super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S wind data and numerical modeling over the Indian Ocean. Wave characteristics were generated in two 25-year periods covering historical and future projections (RCP8.5), and the assessment indicated that, generally, the spatial distributions of wind speed, significant wave height (Hs) and mean spectral wave period (Tm01) will not dramatically change in the future. The assessment also indicated that the wind direction reversing pattern during monsoons will remain similar. Moreover, future westerly winds in the Southern Indian Ocean (SIO) will shift to the south and a decrease in future wind speed north of the equator will occur, espearound the equator due to cially during winter. The relative change of Hs will be less than wind speed the predominance of swells transferring from the SIO. There will be no considerable change in the future Tm01, except during autumn in the area north of the equator. A novel climate stability index is suggested showing that the semi-enclosed seas in the NIO and the western coasts of India and the Maldives will be areas with the least stability in terms of wave climate. Despite experiencing more intense wind and wave climates, the overall climate will be more stable in the SIO than the NIO.

KW - climate change

KW - Indian Ocean

KW - MRI-AGCM3.2S

KW - RCP8.5

KW - SWAN

KW - wave model

U2 - 10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7

DO - 10.1007/s00382-019-04861-7

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85068132462

SN - 0930-7575

VL - 53

SP - 2391

EP - 2410

JO - Climate Dynamics

JF - Climate Dynamics

IS - 3-4

ER -

Future wind and wave climate projections in the Indian Ocean based on a super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2S model projection

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

Fingerprint

Projects

Projection of wave climate and wave energy due to global warming

Cite this