Future energy scenarios in the Scottish Energy Strategy: What can we expect in 2050?

Research output: Other contribution

Abstract

The new Scottish Energy Strategy outlines the vision and main objectives for the energy system in Scotland up to 2050, and the alternative options that may be pursued to help achieve them. In other words, it describes “low-regret” priorities, policies and technologies to help achieve the objective of a mostly decarbonised energy system for Scotland.
The strategy presents two indicative scenarios (informed by the Scottish TIMES model), depicting two different potential futures for the Scottish energy system: one based on electrification, and one based on hydrogen.
Though certainly “these [scenarios] are purely illustrative, designed to help us understand what infrastructure and behaviours might be required under different future scenarios” (The Scottish Energy Strategy, page 24).
However, it is unlikely that either of these future energy scenarios will deliver the cheapest energy system; and the ‘optimal’ solution is likely to fall somewhere in between. Therefore, this brief analysis will try to assess what elements are less or more plausible from each scenario, what can we learn from them and to provide some insights on what the future will look like.
Original languageEnglish
TypeInternational Public Policy Institute
Media of outputBlog
Place of PublicationGlasgow
Publication statusPublished - 18 Jan 2018

Keywords

  • energy policy
  • energy scenarios
  • TIMES
  • scenario analysis
  • decarbonisation

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