Future change of tropical cyclone-induced waves in the Indian Ocean; an analysis based on super-high-resolution MRI-AGCM3.2 climate model

Indian Ocean experiences intensive tropical cyclones in both northern and southern parts. The Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) includes 7% of the global tropical cyclones which results in generating severe wave climate during the extreme events. In this study, future change of tropical cyclone-induced waves due to climate change is assessed in terms of change in the spatial distribution patterns and magnitude. The cyclone seasons in NIO are divided by pre-monsoon (especially May) and northeast monsoon (October–December). Moreover, there are few cyclones form the southwest monsoon during June and September. Hence, the assessment of future change of intensity of tropical cyclones and the generated waves is necessary to be performed on a monthly scale. For this purpose, wind field obtained from super-high-resolution atmospheric global climate model MRI-AGCM3.2S of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) -with horizontal spatial and temporal output resolutions of 20 km and 1 hr., respectivelywas used to force a numerical wave model (SWAN) in historical (1979-2003) and future (2075-2099) periods (based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario).