Fraser of Allander Institute: Economic Commentary [June 2009]

Fraser of Allander Institute

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    Abstract

    The recession in the UK economy may be over. The National Institute for Economic and Social Research in London called the end of the recession as occurring in March and is estimating small positive growth in April and May of this year. Due to lack of data the position in Scotland is much less clear. There is a clear danger of a “false dawn”, since it is not unknown for previous UK recessions to have one or two positive quarters of growth before growth turned negative again. Nevertheless, to the extent that the slowdown in economic activity is moderating and may be past its turning point, three reasons are offered for the turn round: re-stocking after considerable stock run-downs, short-time working and temporary plant closures from late 2008; a more price competitive UK economy due to the 20% fall in the value of sterling since the summer of 2007; and the effect of the significant policy stimulus through monetary and fiscal injections.
    Original languageEnglish
    Place of PublicationGlasgow
    PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
    Number of pages66
    Volume33
    Publication statusPublished - 30 Jun 2009

    Publication series

    NameFraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary
    PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
    No.1
    Volume33
    ISSN (Electronic)2046-5378

    Keywords

    • labour market trends
    • Scotland
    • Scottish economcs
    • economic forecasting

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  • Cite this

    Fraser of Allander Institute (2009). Fraser of Allander Institute: Economic Commentary [June 2009]. (Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary; Vol. 33, No. 1). Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.