Fraser of Allander Institute: Economic Commentary [February 2009]

Fraser of Allander Institute

    Research output: Book/ReportOther report

    Abstract

    Since we last reported in October there has been a considerable deterioration in the actual and forecast performance of all the major economies. In October we considered there was a ‘high probability’ that Scotland would go into recession in 2009. Now, we are certain that not only is Scotland currently in recession but that the recession looks likely to be as severe as that in the 1980s and could even be worse. The tentacles of recession are spreading throughout the economy with construction and financial service activity subject to sustained contraction, hotels & catering turning down from the first quarter of last year and real estate & business services contracting appreciably after March. Economy-wide GVA contracted by -0.8% in the third quarter and seems likely to have fallen markedly in the fourth quarter if the UK’s performance is any guide. Third-quarter manufactured exports decreased by 1% in real terms and by 0.4% over the year. Business surveys covering the fourth quarter period reinforce the expectation that the slowdown will be severe. In the labour market employment is falling and unemployment is rising.
    LanguageEnglish
    Place of PublicationGlasgow
    PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
    Number of pages60
    Volume32
    Publication statusPublished - 28 Feb 2009

    Publication series

    NameFraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary
    PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
    No.3
    Volume32
    ISSN (Electronic)2046-5378

    Fingerprint

    Economics
    Recession
    Scotland
    Business survey
    Contracting
    Labour market
    Unemployment
    Real estate
    Business services
    Hotels
    Deterioration
    Contraction
    Financial services
    Forecast performance

    Keywords

    • labour market trends
    • Scotland
    • Scottish economcs
    • economic forecasting

    Cite this

    Fraser of Allander Institute (2009). Fraser of Allander Institute: Economic Commentary [February 2009]. (Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary; Vol. 32, No. 3). Glasgow: University of Strathclyde.
    Fraser of Allander Institute. / Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [February 2009]. Glasgow : University of Strathclyde, 2009. 60 p. (Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary; 3).
    @book{c0f78df43aee4ae2b6c7ba886983faf1,
    title = "Fraser of Allander Institute: Economic Commentary [February 2009]",
    abstract = "Since we last reported in October there has been a considerable deterioration in the actual and forecast performance of all the major economies. In October we considered there was a ‘high probability’ that Scotland would go into recession in 2009. Now, we are certain that not only is Scotland currently in recession but that the recession looks likely to be as severe as that in the 1980s and could even be worse. The tentacles of recession are spreading throughout the economy with construction and financial service activity subject to sustained contraction, hotels & catering turning down from the first quarter of last year and real estate & business services contracting appreciably after March. Economy-wide GVA contracted by -0.8{\%} in the third quarter and seems likely to have fallen markedly in the fourth quarter if the UK’s performance is any guide. Third-quarter manufactured exports decreased by 1{\%} in real terms and by 0.4{\%} over the year. Business surveys covering the fourth quarter period reinforce the expectation that the slowdown will be severe. In the labour market employment is falling and unemployment is rising.",
    keywords = "labour market trends, Scotland, Scottish economcs, economic forecasting",
    author = "{Fraser of Allander Institute}",
    year = "2009",
    month = "2",
    day = "28",
    language = "English",
    volume = "32",
    series = "Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary",
    publisher = "University of Strathclyde",
    number = "3",

    }

    Fraser of Allander Institute 2009, Fraser of Allander Institute: Economic Commentary [February 2009]. Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary, no. 3, vol. 32, vol. 32, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow.

    Fraser of Allander Institute : Economic Commentary [February 2009]. / Fraser of Allander Institute.

    Glasgow : University of Strathclyde, 2009. 60 p. (Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary; Vol. 32, No. 3).

    Research output: Book/ReportOther report

    TY - BOOK

    T1 - Fraser of Allander Institute

    T2 - Economic Commentary [February 2009]

    AU - Fraser of Allander Institute

    PY - 2009/2/28

    Y1 - 2009/2/28

    N2 - Since we last reported in October there has been a considerable deterioration in the actual and forecast performance of all the major economies. In October we considered there was a ‘high probability’ that Scotland would go into recession in 2009. Now, we are certain that not only is Scotland currently in recession but that the recession looks likely to be as severe as that in the 1980s and could even be worse. The tentacles of recession are spreading throughout the economy with construction and financial service activity subject to sustained contraction, hotels & catering turning down from the first quarter of last year and real estate & business services contracting appreciably after March. Economy-wide GVA contracted by -0.8% in the third quarter and seems likely to have fallen markedly in the fourth quarter if the UK’s performance is any guide. Third-quarter manufactured exports decreased by 1% in real terms and by 0.4% over the year. Business surveys covering the fourth quarter period reinforce the expectation that the slowdown will be severe. In the labour market employment is falling and unemployment is rising.

    AB - Since we last reported in October there has been a considerable deterioration in the actual and forecast performance of all the major economies. In October we considered there was a ‘high probability’ that Scotland would go into recession in 2009. Now, we are certain that not only is Scotland currently in recession but that the recession looks likely to be as severe as that in the 1980s and could even be worse. The tentacles of recession are spreading throughout the economy with construction and financial service activity subject to sustained contraction, hotels & catering turning down from the first quarter of last year and real estate & business services contracting appreciably after March. Economy-wide GVA contracted by -0.8% in the third quarter and seems likely to have fallen markedly in the fourth quarter if the UK’s performance is any guide. Third-quarter manufactured exports decreased by 1% in real terms and by 0.4% over the year. Business surveys covering the fourth quarter period reinforce the expectation that the slowdown will be severe. In the labour market employment is falling and unemployment is rising.

    KW - labour market trends

    KW - Scotland

    KW - Scottish economcs

    KW - economic forecasting

    UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/business/economics/fraserofallanderinstitute/

    M3 - Other report

    VL - 32

    T3 - Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary

    BT - Fraser of Allander Institute

    PB - University of Strathclyde

    CY - Glasgow

    ER -

    Fraser of Allander Institute. Fraser of Allander Institute: Economic Commentary [February 2009]. Glasgow: University of Strathclyde, 2009. 60 p. (Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary; 3).