Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2014]

Grant Allan

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Abstract

The latest figures indicate that the Scottish economy has picked up strongly in the first half of 2014, in line with a surge in leading indicators across business surveys. It is likely however that this has eased as we turned into the later part of this year, suggesting that the rate of growth will slow. Where 2014 has exceeded our earlier expectations, we have revised our forecasts for growth (upwards) and unemployment (downwards) from June’s Commentary. It remains unlikely that we will see a renewed expansion in activity given the scope for potential downside risks from, in particular, weak growth and deflation fears in the Eurozone; weak export growth; debt constrained households unlikely to continue to support economic activity and only slowing improving outlook for investment through 2015. Revisions to the data for the UK, to be implemented in Scottish statistics next year, will make somewhat difficult to make direct comparisons about the recent trajectory of the UK and Scottish economic performances: however the general picture, of slow and unsteady growth for Scotland is likely to characterise developments through the coming years.
LanguageEnglish
Pages24-32
Number of pages9
JournalFraser of Allander Economic Commentary
Volume38
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 12 Nov 2014

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Euro zone
Business survey
Deflation
Export growth
Unemployment
Household
Downside risk
Statistics
Trajectory
Economic performance
Leading indicators
Debt
Economic activity
Scotland

Keywords

  • Scottish economic conditions
  • Scottish economic forecasts
  • Scottish business activity

Cite this

Allan, Grant. / Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2014]. In: Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary. 2014 ; Vol. 38, No. 2. pp. 24-32.
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Allan, G 2014, 'Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2014]' Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 24-32.

Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2014]. / Allan, Grant.

In: Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, Vol. 38, No. 2, 12.11.2014, p. 24-32.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

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AB - The latest figures indicate that the Scottish economy has picked up strongly in the first half of 2014, in line with a surge in leading indicators across business surveys. It is likely however that this has eased as we turned into the later part of this year, suggesting that the rate of growth will slow. Where 2014 has exceeded our earlier expectations, we have revised our forecasts for growth (upwards) and unemployment (downwards) from June’s Commentary. It remains unlikely that we will see a renewed expansion in activity given the scope for potential downside risks from, in particular, weak growth and deflation fears in the Eurozone; weak export growth; debt constrained households unlikely to continue to support economic activity and only slowing improving outlook for investment through 2015. Revisions to the data for the UK, to be implemented in Scottish statistics next year, will make somewhat difficult to make direct comparisons about the recent trajectory of the UK and Scottish economic performances: however the general picture, of slow and unsteady growth for Scotland is likely to characterise developments through the coming years.

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Allan G. Forecasts of the Scottish economy [November 2014]. Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary. 2014 Nov 12;38(2):24-32.

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