Forecasts of the Scottish economy [March 2013]

After two quarters of negative growth, the Scottish economy delivered a strong performance in the third quarter of 2012. The UK economy as a whole saw negative growth in the final quarter of 2012 - and it looks likely that Scottish growth over 2012 will be close to zero. Over the coming year, we see slowing earnings growth, the introduction of welfare changes and continued fiscal consolidation weakening the domestic economy, while there could be increasing volatility, including potentially critical political shocks, in important export markets. The net result is a lowering of our central growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014. It continues to be true that risks are aligned to the downside again. Growth in the United States – Scotland's single largest export market – appears strong, highlighting opportunities, albeit further concentrating Scottish reliance on this market.