Forecasts of the Scottish economy [June 2014]

It appears likely that Scotland‟s economic activity will finally reach its pre-recession (2008) peak in the current quarter of 2014. The start of this year has seen an upswing in business confidence, particularly around new orders and intentions to invest, while the Bank of England‟s monetary policy continues to be unprecedented at this early stage of the recovery, and designed to accommodate an increase in economic activity, particularly investment, which remains subdued by historic standards. In this context, we have raised slightly our forecast for growth in this year. Downside risks to growth remain, with households – critical for the first phase of the recovery to date – continuing to face slow real income growth. While inflation pressures have eased, it appears likely that strong household earnings growth will not return until 2015. Rebalancing towards exports continues to be hampered by sluggish export performance, and external markets remain weak, although the outlook for the US – Scotland‟s largest single (non-UK) export destination – is forecast to grow strongly through 2014 and 2015.