Forecasts of the Scottish economy [June 2013]

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Abstract

Despite continued challenges in the domestic and external environment, there are little signs that some of the downside risks to growth in 2013 are likely to materialise. There is growing evidence of a recovery in the United States, and while some Eurozone countries have seen their growth forecasts downgraded in recent months, forecasts by major institutions for the Euro area as a whole have not been revised down as significantly as they have been on occasions over the last four years. Following revisions to some of the (experimental) national accounts data for Scotland, an interesting pattern of pre-recession divergences in income and expenditure between Scotland and the UK as a whole has emerged, which will require further examination to explore its consequences for the future path of consumer spending growth in Scotland. We have kept our forecast for growth in Scotland through 2013 at 0.9%, with a minor revision of our forecast for 2014 to 1.6% from 1.7%. Our forecast for growth in 2015 is now 2.1%, up by 0.2 percentage points. The jobs outlook for Scotland is forecast to improve relative to our previous forecasts with modest growth in net employee jobs each year through the forecast horizon.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)24-33
Number of pages10
JournalFraser of Allander Economic Commentary
Volume32
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2013

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Scotland
National accounts
Euro zone
Euro area
Consumer spending
Forecast horizon
Divergence
Income
Expenditure
Recession
External environment
Employees
Downside risk

Keywords

  • Scottish economy
  • economic forecasts
  • economic growth indicators

Cite this

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title = "Forecasts of the Scottish economy [June 2013]",
abstract = "Despite continued challenges in the domestic and external environment, there are little signs that some of the downside risks to growth in 2013 are likely to materialise. There is growing evidence of a recovery in the United States, and while some Eurozone countries have seen their growth forecasts downgraded in recent months, forecasts by major institutions for the Euro area as a whole have not been revised down as significantly as they have been on occasions over the last four years. Following revisions to some of the (experimental) national accounts data for Scotland, an interesting pattern of pre-recession divergences in income and expenditure between Scotland and the UK as a whole has emerged, which will require further examination to explore its consequences for the future path of consumer spending growth in Scotland. We have kept our forecast for growth in Scotland through 2013 at 0.9{\%}, with a minor revision of our forecast for 2014 to 1.6{\%} from 1.7{\%}. Our forecast for growth in 2015 is now 2.1{\%}, up by 0.2 percentage points. The jobs outlook for Scotland is forecast to improve relative to our previous forecasts with modest growth in net employee jobs each year through the forecast horizon.",
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Forecasts of the Scottish economy [June 2013]. / Allan, Grant.

In: Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, Vol. 32, No. 1, 06.2013, p. 24-33.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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T1 - Forecasts of the Scottish economy [June 2013]

AU - Allan, Grant

PY - 2013/6

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N2 - Despite continued challenges in the domestic and external environment, there are little signs that some of the downside risks to growth in 2013 are likely to materialise. There is growing evidence of a recovery in the United States, and while some Eurozone countries have seen their growth forecasts downgraded in recent months, forecasts by major institutions for the Euro area as a whole have not been revised down as significantly as they have been on occasions over the last four years. Following revisions to some of the (experimental) national accounts data for Scotland, an interesting pattern of pre-recession divergences in income and expenditure between Scotland and the UK as a whole has emerged, which will require further examination to explore its consequences for the future path of consumer spending growth in Scotland. We have kept our forecast for growth in Scotland through 2013 at 0.9%, with a minor revision of our forecast for 2014 to 1.6% from 1.7%. Our forecast for growth in 2015 is now 2.1%, up by 0.2 percentage points. The jobs outlook for Scotland is forecast to improve relative to our previous forecasts with modest growth in net employee jobs each year through the forecast horizon.

AB - Despite continued challenges in the domestic and external environment, there are little signs that some of the downside risks to growth in 2013 are likely to materialise. There is growing evidence of a recovery in the United States, and while some Eurozone countries have seen their growth forecasts downgraded in recent months, forecasts by major institutions for the Euro area as a whole have not been revised down as significantly as they have been on occasions over the last four years. Following revisions to some of the (experimental) national accounts data for Scotland, an interesting pattern of pre-recession divergences in income and expenditure between Scotland and the UK as a whole has emerged, which will require further examination to explore its consequences for the future path of consumer spending growth in Scotland. We have kept our forecast for growth in Scotland through 2013 at 0.9%, with a minor revision of our forecast for 2014 to 1.6% from 1.7%. Our forecast for growth in 2015 is now 2.1%, up by 0.2 percentage points. The jobs outlook for Scotland is forecast to improve relative to our previous forecasts with modest growth in net employee jobs each year through the forecast horizon.

KW - Scottish economy

KW - economic forecasts

KW - economic growth indicators

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UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/frasercommentary/

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