Forecasts of the Scottish economy [February 2012]

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Abstract

The Scottish economy is likely to have seen negative growth in the final quarter of 2011. Further, the Scottish labour market has displayed weakness over the last few months as unemployment has increased and employment fallen. The outlook for domestic spending looks bleak in the short term due to slow wage growth and is further weakened over the medium term by reductions to household benefits, despite reductions in inflation easing some of the squeeze on real incomes. Prime export markets for Scottish goods and services appear to have returned to recession, with Euro Area forecasts cut radically since our last forecast. Without a switch of exports to fast-growing markets, or a (increasingly unlikely) quick return of stability to the Euro Area, the prospect for an export-led recovery appear limited in the near term. Job numbers are forecast to decline through 2012, recovering slowly through 2013 and 2014, with unemployment forecast to be 9.8% at the end of 2012 and decline from there to the end of the forecast window.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)22-38
Number of pages17
JournalFraser of Allander Economic Commentary
Volume35
Issue number3
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2012

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Euro area
Unemployment
Labour market
Real income
Recession
Household
Export markets
Inflation
Wage growth

Keywords

  • Scottish economy
  • Scottish economic forecasts
  • economic performance

Cite this

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abstract = "The Scottish economy is likely to have seen negative growth in the final quarter of 2011. Further, the Scottish labour market has displayed weakness over the last few months as unemployment has increased and employment fallen. The outlook for domestic spending looks bleak in the short term due to slow wage growth and is further weakened over the medium term by reductions to household benefits, despite reductions in inflation easing some of the squeeze on real incomes. Prime export markets for Scottish goods and services appear to have returned to recession, with Euro Area forecasts cut radically since our last forecast. Without a switch of exports to fast-growing markets, or a (increasingly unlikely) quick return of stability to the Euro Area, the prospect for an export-led recovery appear limited in the near term. Job numbers are forecast to decline through 2012, recovering slowly through 2013 and 2014, with unemployment forecast to be 9.8{\%} at the end of 2012 and decline from there to the end of the forecast window.",
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Forecasts of the Scottish economy [February 2012]. / Allan, Grant.

In: Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary, Vol. 35, No. 3, 02.2012, p. 22-38.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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