Forecasts of the Scottish economy [February 2005]

Kenneth Low

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Growth in the world economy is relatively strong (despite the weak data in the summer and a slight slowing in China). Strong growth in the US, China and Japan are driving the world economy. The Euro Area remains relatively weak but is expected to pick up in 2005-06. The world economy is expected to grow at a considerable pace (close to 4 per cent) in 2004 but growth is forecast to be slightly less in 2005. World trade is forecast to grow rapidly in both 2004 and 2005 (just below 10 per cent for both years). Chinese trade flows and the importance of trade in Asia are the most significant contributions to this growth.
The UK continues to enjoy the benefits of growth and trade accruing from the US and expanding new markets in the Far East, especially China. We are also expecting growth to benefit from the forecast recovery in the Euro Area and to reap rewards from domestic demand. When UK GDP growth for 2004Q3 was recorded as only 0.5 per cent this was unexpected. Fourth quarter growth appears to be much stronger at 0.7 per cent. Employment remains relatively strong while unemployment is low. Inflation is also low and stable despite recent surges in both house price inflation and the oil price. Interest rates appear to have stabilised at 4.75 per cent. Consumption, government spending and investment are the main drivers of UK growth.
LanguageEnglish
Pages17-20
Number of pages4
JournalQuarterly Economic Commentary
Volume29
Issue number4
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2005

Fingerprint

China
World economy
Euro area
Inflation
Asia
World trade
GDP growth
Japan
Unemployment
Oil prices
Interest rates
House prices
Trade flows
Trade and growth
Domestic demand
Government spending
Reward
New markets

Keywords

  • Scottish economy
  • Scottish economic performance
  • Scottish economic trends
  • economic forecasts

Cite this

Low, Kenneth. / Forecasts of the Scottish economy [February 2005]. In: Quarterly Economic Commentary. 2005 ; Vol. 29, No. 4. pp. 17-20.
@article{898c53503c314135a88858a1dd77251f,
title = "Forecasts of the Scottish economy [February 2005]",
abstract = "Growth in the world economy is relatively strong (despite the weak data in the summer and a slight slowing in China). Strong growth in the US, China and Japan are driving the world economy. The Euro Area remains relatively weak but is expected to pick up in 2005-06. The world economy is expected to grow at a considerable pace (close to 4 per cent) in 2004 but growth is forecast to be slightly less in 2005. World trade is forecast to grow rapidly in both 2004 and 2005 (just below 10 per cent for both years). Chinese trade flows and the importance of trade in Asia are the most significant contributions to this growth.The UK continues to enjoy the benefits of growth and trade accruing from the US and expanding new markets in the Far East, especially China. We are also expecting growth to benefit from the forecast recovery in the Euro Area and to reap rewards from domestic demand. When UK GDP growth for 2004Q3 was recorded as only 0.5 per cent this was unexpected. Fourth quarter growth appears to be much stronger at 0.7 per cent. Employment remains relatively strong while unemployment is low. Inflation is also low and stable despite recent surges in both house price inflation and the oil price. Interest rates appear to have stabilised at 4.75 per cent. Consumption, government spending and investment are the main drivers of UK growth.",
keywords = "Scottish economy, Scottish economic performance, Scottish economic trends, economic forecasts",
author = "Kenneth Low",
year = "2005",
month = "2",
language = "English",
volume = "29",
pages = "17--20",
journal = "Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary",
issn = "2046-5378",
publisher = "University of Strathclyde",
number = "4",

}

Forecasts of the Scottish economy [February 2005]. / Low, Kenneth.

In: Quarterly Economic Commentary, Vol. 29, No. 4, 02.2005, p. 17-20.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Forecasts of the Scottish economy [February 2005]

AU - Low, Kenneth

PY - 2005/2

Y1 - 2005/2

N2 - Growth in the world economy is relatively strong (despite the weak data in the summer and a slight slowing in China). Strong growth in the US, China and Japan are driving the world economy. The Euro Area remains relatively weak but is expected to pick up in 2005-06. The world economy is expected to grow at a considerable pace (close to 4 per cent) in 2004 but growth is forecast to be slightly less in 2005. World trade is forecast to grow rapidly in both 2004 and 2005 (just below 10 per cent for both years). Chinese trade flows and the importance of trade in Asia are the most significant contributions to this growth.The UK continues to enjoy the benefits of growth and trade accruing from the US and expanding new markets in the Far East, especially China. We are also expecting growth to benefit from the forecast recovery in the Euro Area and to reap rewards from domestic demand. When UK GDP growth for 2004Q3 was recorded as only 0.5 per cent this was unexpected. Fourth quarter growth appears to be much stronger at 0.7 per cent. Employment remains relatively strong while unemployment is low. Inflation is also low and stable despite recent surges in both house price inflation and the oil price. Interest rates appear to have stabilised at 4.75 per cent. Consumption, government spending and investment are the main drivers of UK growth.

AB - Growth in the world economy is relatively strong (despite the weak data in the summer and a slight slowing in China). Strong growth in the US, China and Japan are driving the world economy. The Euro Area remains relatively weak but is expected to pick up in 2005-06. The world economy is expected to grow at a considerable pace (close to 4 per cent) in 2004 but growth is forecast to be slightly less in 2005. World trade is forecast to grow rapidly in both 2004 and 2005 (just below 10 per cent for both years). Chinese trade flows and the importance of trade in Asia are the most significant contributions to this growth.The UK continues to enjoy the benefits of growth and trade accruing from the US and expanding new markets in the Far East, especially China. We are also expecting growth to benefit from the forecast recovery in the Euro Area and to reap rewards from domestic demand. When UK GDP growth for 2004Q3 was recorded as only 0.5 per cent this was unexpected. Fourth quarter growth appears to be much stronger at 0.7 per cent. Employment remains relatively strong while unemployment is low. Inflation is also low and stable despite recent surges in both house price inflation and the oil price. Interest rates appear to have stabilised at 4.75 per cent. Consumption, government spending and investment are the main drivers of UK growth.

KW - Scottish economy

KW - Scottish economic performance

KW - Scottish economic trends

KW - economic forecasts

UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/fraser/

UR - http://www.strath.ac.uk/frasercommentary/

M3 - Article

VL - 29

SP - 17

EP - 20

JO - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

T2 - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

JF - Fraser of Allander Economic Commentary

SN - 2046-5378

IS - 4

ER -