Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind

D. McMillan, I. Dinwoodie

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Offshore wind deployment has greatly increased in the last decade. The number and size of installations have historically determined the requirement for jack up vessels, as installation was the only driver for heavy lift vessel requirement. The next phase of offshore wind development will change this situation, as jack up requirement for operations and maintenance will certainly increase as assets age, and in parallel larger sites continue to be installed and commissioned. The approach taken in this paper is to develop a long-term vessel demand model. This is achieved by a two stage process: firstly an installation jack up demand model is developed using UK offshore wind data for projects installed in the period 2003-2016. This model is utilized in tandem with an operations and maintenance jack up requirement model which is based on published reliability figures and failure duration data. The combined model captures the requirement for jack up vessels in the period 2012-2030. The paper concludes that demand for jack up vessels in UK waters will ramp up significantly in this decade, with an initial peak in 2014. A secondary peak around 2028 is highly dependent on assumptions regarding the trajectory of the turbine failure rate over time.

LanguageEnglish
Title of host publicationSafety, Reliability and Risk Analysis
Subtitle of host publicationBeyond the Horizon - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013
EditorsR.D.J.M. Steenbergen, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, S. Miraglia, A.C.W.M. Ton Vrouwenvelder
Pages2119-2125
Number of pages7
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2014
EventEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 - Amsterdam, United Kingdom
Duration: 29 Sep 20132 Oct 2013

Conference

ConferenceEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityAmsterdam
Period29/09/132/10/13

Fingerprint

Jacks
Turbines
Trajectories
Water

Keywords

  • jack up vessel
  • offshore wind
  • offshore wind development

Cite this

McMillan, D., & Dinwoodie, I. (2014). Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind. In R. D. J. M. Steenbergen, P. H. A. J. M. van Gelder, S. Miraglia, & A. C. W. M. Ton Vrouwenvelder (Eds.), Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 (pp. 2119-2125)
McMillan, D. ; Dinwoodie, I. / Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind. Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. editor / R.D.J.M. Steenbergen ; P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder ; S. Miraglia ; A.C.W.M. Ton Vrouwenvelder. 2014. pp. 2119-2125
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McMillan, D & Dinwoodie, I 2014, Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind. in RDJM Steenbergen, PHAJM van Gelder, S Miraglia & ACWM Ton Vrouwenvelder (eds), Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. pp. 2119-2125, European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013, Amsterdam, United Kingdom, 29/09/13.

Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind. / McMillan, D.; Dinwoodie, I.

Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. ed. / R.D.J.M. Steenbergen; P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder; S. Miraglia; A.C.W.M. Ton Vrouwenvelder. 2014. p. 2119-2125.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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N2 - Offshore wind deployment has greatly increased in the last decade. The number and size of installations have historically determined the requirement for jack up vessels, as installation was the only driver for heavy lift vessel requirement. The next phase of offshore wind development will change this situation, as jack up requirement for operations and maintenance will certainly increase as assets age, and in parallel larger sites continue to be installed and commissioned. The approach taken in this paper is to develop a long-term vessel demand model. This is achieved by a two stage process: firstly an installation jack up demand model is developed using UK offshore wind data for projects installed in the period 2003-2016. This model is utilized in tandem with an operations and maintenance jack up requirement model which is based on published reliability figures and failure duration data. The combined model captures the requirement for jack up vessels in the period 2012-2030. The paper concludes that demand for jack up vessels in UK waters will ramp up significantly in this decade, with an initial peak in 2014. A secondary peak around 2028 is highly dependent on assumptions regarding the trajectory of the turbine failure rate over time.

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McMillan D, Dinwoodie I. Forecasting long term jack up vessel demand for offshore wind. In Steenbergen RDJM, van Gelder PHAJM, Miraglia S, Ton Vrouwenvelder ACWM, editors, Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013. 2014. p. 2119-2125