Forecasting for day-ahead offshore maintenance scheduling under uncertainty

J. Browell, I. Dinwoodie, D. McMillan

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution book

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Offshore wind farm maintenance operations are complex and dangerous, and as such are subject to strict safety constraints. In addition, crew and vessels must be scheduled in advance for both planned and reactive maintenance operations. Meteorological forecasts on many time-scales are used to inform scheduling decisions, but are imperfect. Short-term maintenance scheduling is therefore a problem of decision-making under uncertainty. This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to the short-term scheduling problem based on a cost-loss model for individual maintenance missions, and probabilistic forecasts of appropriate access windows. This approach is found to increase the utilisation of possible access windows compared to using deterministic decision rules. The impact of forecasting on the availability and operational costs of oshore wind is then examined using a Monte Carlo-based cost model. This has quantified the impact on availability and revenue performance under a range of site conditions.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings of the European Safety and Reliability (ESREL) Conference, 2016
Place of PublicationGlasgow
PublisherUniversity of Strathclyde
Number of pages8
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 13 Jun 2016
EventEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference 2016 - University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, United Kingdom
Duration: 25 Sept 201629 Sept 2016 (Link to conference web site)


ConferenceEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference 2016
Abbreviated titleESREL 2016
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
Internet address


  • forecasting
  • decision support
  • offshore wind
  • maintenance
  • maintenance and availability modeling


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  • EPSRC Doctoral Prize

    Browell, Jethro (Recipient), 1 Oct 2015

    Prize: Prize (including medals and awards)

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