Fifteen years of expert judgement at TUDelft

LHJ Goossens, RM Cooke, AR Hale, Lj. Rodić-Wiersma

Research output: Contribution to journalConference Contribution

44 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Over the last fifteen Delft University of Technology (both the Safety Science Group and the Department of Mathematics of TUDelft) has developed methods and tools to support the formal application of expert judgement. Over 800 experts assessed over 4000 variables, in total representing more than 80,000 elicited questions. Applications were made in a variety of sectors, such as nuclear applications, the chemical and gas industries, toxicity of chemicals, external effects (pollution, waste disposal sites, inundation, volcano eruptions), aerospace sector and aviation sector, the occupational sector, the health sector, and the banking sector.
The techniques developed at TUDelft can be applied to give either quantitative assessments or just qualitative and comparative assessments. The application of these techniques is driven by a number of principles, including scrutability, fairness, neutrality, and performance control. The overall goal of these formal methods is to achieve rational consensus in the resulting assessments. Performance criteria are based on control assessments, that is, assessments of uncertain quantities, closely resembling the variables of interest, for which true values (e.g., from experiments) are known post hoc. The use of empirical control assessments is a distinctive feature of the Delft methods. A Procedure Guide for Structured Expert Judgement is published by the European Commission as EUR 18820. This paper highlights the comparative assessments for which the Safety Science Group was the prime responsible.
LanguageEnglish
Pages234-244
Number of pages11
JournalSafety Science
Volume46
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2008
EventThird international conference Working on Safety (WOS2006) - Zeewolde, Netherlands
Duration: 12 Sep 200615 Sep 2006

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expert
Waste Disposal Facilities
Safety
Chemical Industry
Aviation
Volcanoes
Formal methods
Mathematics
Gas industry
Occupational Health
Chemical industry
Waste disposal
Toxicity
Consensus
Pollution
external effects
Gases
gas industry
Health
chemical industry

Keywords

  • fifteen years
  • expert judgement
  • TUDelft
  • occupational accident scenarios
  • accident analysis

Cite this

Goossens, LHJ., Cooke, RM., Hale, AR., & Rodić-Wiersma, L. (2008). Fifteen years of expert judgement at TUDelft. Safety Science, 46(2), 234-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2007.03.002
Goossens, LHJ ; Cooke, RM ; Hale, AR ; Rodić-Wiersma, Lj. . / Fifteen years of expert judgement at TUDelft. In: Safety Science. 2008 ; Vol. 46, No. 2. pp. 234-244.
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Goossens, LHJ, Cooke, RM, Hale, AR & Rodić-Wiersma, L 2008, 'Fifteen years of expert judgement at TUDelft' Safety Science, vol. 46, no. 2, pp. 234-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2007.03.002

Fifteen years of expert judgement at TUDelft. / Goossens, LHJ; Cooke, RM; Hale, AR; Rodić-Wiersma, Lj. .

In: Safety Science, Vol. 46, No. 2, 02.2008, p. 234-244.

Research output: Contribution to journalConference Contribution

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Goossens LHJ, Cooke RM, Hale AR, Rodić-Wiersma L. Fifteen years of expert judgement at TUDelft. Safety Science. 2008 Feb;46(2):234-244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2007.03.002