Extending the use of scenario planning and MCDA for the evaluation of strategic options

Camelia Ram, Gilberto Montibeller, Alec Morton

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

53 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is well equipped to deal with conflicting, qualitative objectives when evaluating strategic options. Scenario planning provides a framework for confronting uncertainty, which MCDA lacks. Integration of these methods offers various advantages, yet its effective application in evaluating strategic options would benefit from scenarios that reflect a larger number of wide-ranging scenarios developed in a time-efficient manner, as well as incorporation of MCDA measures that inform within and across scenario comparison of options. The main contribution of this paper is to illustrate how a more diverse set of scenarios could be developed quickly, and to investigate how regret could be used to facilitate comparison of options. First, the reasons for these two areas of development are elaborated with respect to existing techniques. The impacts of applying the proposed method in practice are then assessed through a case study involving food security in Trinidad and Tobago. The paper concludes with a discussion of findings and areas for further research.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)817-829
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of the Operational Research Society
Volume62
Issue number5
Early online date7 Jul 2010
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2011

Keywords

  • multi-criteria decision analysis
  • MCDA
  • scenario planning
  • strategic options

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